** WTIN20 DEMS 060635 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 06-07-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH EAST AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG LAT. 27.5 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ----- ** WTPQ20 RJTD 060600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603) ANALYSIS PSTN 060600UTC 19.6N 128.4E GOOD MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 935HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 90NM 30KT 240NM FORECAST 24HF 070600UTC 21.4N 127.4E 90NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 935HPA MXWD 085KT 48HF 080600UTC 24.2N 126.3E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 085KT 72HF 090600UTC 28.4N 125.5E 220NM 70% MOVE N 10KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 085KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 060600 *** WARNING 060600. WARNING VALID 070600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 935 HPA AT 19.6N 128.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 21.4N 127.4E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 24.2N 126.3E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 28.4N 125.5E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 060600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY EWINIAR 0603 (0603) INITIAL TIME 060600 UTC 00HR 19.6N 128.5E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 10KM/H P+24HR 21.2N 127.2E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 23.3N 126.4E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 26.5N 125.3E 950HPA 45M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 060600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 12 NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR ANALYSIS POSITION 060600UTC 19.6N 128.4E MOVEMENT NW 5KT PRES/VMAX 935HPA 84KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 070600UTC 21.7N 127.4E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 935HPA 84KT 48HR POSITION 080600UTC 24.7N 126.9E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 940HPA 80KT 72HR POSITION 090600UTC 28.3N 126.8E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 945HPA 76KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 060600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.13 FOR TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 060600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE. TY WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTH-NORTHWEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPH RPLL 060600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 17 AT 0600 06 JULY TYPHOON (EWINIAR) (0603) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE NINE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT FOUR EAST MOVING NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS NORTHEAST SEMI-CIRCLE FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED C CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FIVE FOUR HECTOPASCAL MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR SIX METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS NORTHEAST SEMI-CIRCLE FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 070600 TWO ONE POINT ZERO NROTH ONE TWO SIX POINT SEVEN EAST AT 080600 TWO THREE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT NINE EAST AND AT 090600 TWO FIVE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT FIVE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTPQ20 BABJ 060900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY EWINIAR 0603 (0603) INITIAL TIME 060900 UTC 00HR 19.9N 128.3E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 10KM/H P+24HR 21.5N 127.1E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 23.6N 126.2E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 27.0N 125.2E 950HPA 45M/S= ** WTJP31 RJTD 060900 *** WARNING 060900. WARNING VALID 070900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 935 HPA AT 19.8N 128.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070900UTC AT 21.6N 127.3E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 060900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603) ANALYSIS PSTN 060900UTC 19.8N 128.3E GOOD MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 935HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 90NM 30KT 240NM FORECAST 24HF 070900UTC 21.6N 127.3E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 935HPA MXWD 085KT 45HF 080600UTC 24.2N 126.3E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 085KT 69HF 090600UTC 28.4N 125.5E 220NM 70% MOVE N 10KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 085KT = ** WTPH20 RPMM 060600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 17 AT 0600 06 JULY TYPHOON (EWINIAR) (0603) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE NINE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT FOUR EAST MOVING NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS NORTHEAST SEMI-CIRCLE FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FIVE FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR SIX METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS NORTHEAST SEMI-CIRCLE FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 070600 TWO ONE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT SEVEN EAST AT 080600 TWO THREE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT NINE EAST AND AT 090600 TWO FIVE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT FIVE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA=