** WTIN20 DEMS 060610 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 05-07-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH EAST AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG LAT. 27.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ----- ** WTJP21 RJTD 050600 *** WARNING 050600. WARNING VALID 060600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 920 HPA AT 18.2N 130.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 20.0N 128.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 21.5N 128.2E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 24.4N 127.5E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 050600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603) ANALYSIS PSTN 050600UTC 18.2N 130.1E GOOD MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 100KT 50KT 90NM 30KT 250NM FORECAST 24HF 060600UTC 20.0N 128.4E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 06KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 100KT 48HF 070600UTC 21.5N 128.2E 150NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 920HPA MXWD 100KT 72HF 080600UTC 24.4N 127.5E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 100KT = ** WTIN20 DEMS 060610 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 05-07-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH EAST AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG LAT. 27.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ----- ** WTPQ20 BABJ 050600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST SUPER TY EWINIAR 0603 (0603) INITIAL TIME 050600 UTC 00HR 18.3N 130.1E 930HPA 55M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 15KM/H P+24HR 20.4N 129.3E 920HPA 60M/S P+48HR 22.5N 128.9E 930HPA 55M/S P+72HR 24.9N 128.6E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 050600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.11 FOR TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 050600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DECELERATE. TY WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTH-NORTHWEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 7.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 050600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 10 NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR ANALYSIS POSITION 050600UTC 18.2N 130.1E MOVEMENT WNW 7KT PRES/VMAX 920HPA 99KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 060600UTC 20.3N 128.8E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 920HPA 101KT 48HR POSITION 070600UTC 22.2N 128.2E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 920HPA 101KT 72HR POSITION 080600UTC 25.5N 128.0E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 930HPA 95KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTIN20 DEMS 050610 COR *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 05-07-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH EAST AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG LAT. 27.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ----- ** WTPN21 PGTW 050530 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION/050521ZJUL2006// REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041121ZJUL2006// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 041130). THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.1N 154.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.0N 153.3E, APPROXIMATELY 750 NM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL AN AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING AT THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. WHILE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PULSE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINE ISLANDS, SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES DO NOT SUPPORT A DISTINCT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AT THIS TIME. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS IN A REGION OF FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD DIFFLUENCE WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. SINCE A LLCC HAS NOT CONSOLIDATED, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.// ** WTPH RPMM 050600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 13 AT 0600 05 JULY TYPHOON (EWINIAR) (0603) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE EIGHT POINT TWO NORTH ONE THREE ZERO POINT ONE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS NORTHEAST SEMI-CIRCLE FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FOUR EIGHTHECTOPASCAL MAXIM UM WIDS FOUR EIGHT METER PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE . FORECAST POSTIONS AT 060600 ONE NINE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT ONE EAST AT 070600 TWO TWO POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT TWO EAST AND AT 080600 TWO FIVE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT FIVE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA ** WTPN31 PGTW 050900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 04W (EWINIAR) WARNING NR 023 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 050600Z --- NEAR 18.2N 130.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 130.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 19.0N 129.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 20.0N 128.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 21.1N 128.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 22.7N 128.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 26.4N 128.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 30.1N 129.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 35.1N 133.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 050900Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 129.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 04W (EWINIAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 050900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603) ANALYSIS PSTN 050900UTC 18.3N 129.8E GOOD MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 100KT 50KT 90NM 30KT 250NM FORECAST 24HF 060900UTC 20.1N 128.3E 80NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 920HPA MXWD 100KT 45HF 070600UTC 21.5N 128.2E 150NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 920HPA MXWD 100KT 69HF 080600UTC 24.4N 127.5E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 100KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 050900 *** WARNING 050900. WARNING VALID 060900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 920 HPA AT 18.3N 129.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060900UTC AT 20.1N 128.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPH20 RPMM 050600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 13 AT 0600 05 JULY TYPHOON (EWINIAR) {0603} WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE EIGHT POINT TWO NORTH ONE THREE ZERO POINT ONE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS NORTHEAST SEMI-CIRCLE FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FOUR EIGHT HECTOPASCAL MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS NORTHEAST SEMI-CIRCLE FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 060600 ONE NINE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT ONE EASTAT 070600 TWO TWO POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT TWO EAST AND AT 080600 TWO FIVE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT FIVE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA =