** WTPQ20 BABJ 041200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY EWINIAR 0603 (0603) INITIAL TIME 041200 UTC 00HR 16.8N 132.2E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 180KM P12HR NW 15KM/H P+24HR 18.9N 130.0E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 21.2N 129.0E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 24.6N 129.0E 950HPA 45M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 041200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603) ANALYSIS PSTN 041200UTC 16.8N 132.2E GOOD MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 50KT 100NM 30KT 240NM FORECAST 24HF 051200UTC 19.2N 129.9E 90NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 100KT 48HF 061200UTC 21.3N 129.4E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 920HPA MXWD 100KT 72HF 071200UTC 24.1N 129.4E 220NM 70% MOVE N 07KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 100KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 041200 *** WARNING 041200. WARNING VALID 051200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 930 HPA AT 16.8N 132.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 19.2N 129.9E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 21.3N 129.4E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 24.1N 129.4E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 041200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603) ANALYSIS PSTN 041200UTC 16.8N 132.2E GOOD MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 50KT 100NM 30KT 240NM FORECAST 24HF 051200UTC 19.2N 129.9E 90NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 100KT 48HF 061200UTC 21.3N 129.4E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 920HPA MXWD 100KT 72HF 071200UTC 24.1N 129.4E 220NM 70% MOVE N 07KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 100KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 041200 *** WARNING 041200. WARNING VALID 051200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 930 HPA AT 16.8N 132.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 19.2N 129.9E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 21.3N 129.4E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 24.1N 129.4E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 041500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 04W (EWINIAR) WARNING NR 020 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 041200Z --- NEAR 16.8N 132.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.8N 132.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 18.0N 131.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 19.0N 130.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 20.0N 129.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 21.2N 129.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 24.4N 129.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 29.3N 130.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 34.8N 134.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 041500Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 131.9E. TYPHOON (TY) 04W (EWINIAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 620 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE STORM HAS INTENSIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS AND NOW HAS A WELL DEFINED 13 NM DIAMETER EYE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 041500 *** WARNING 041500. WARNING VALID 051500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 930 HPA AT 17.1N 131.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 051500UTC AT 19.5N 129.8E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 041500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603) ANALYSIS PSTN 041500UTC 17.1N 131.8E GOOD MOVE NW 07KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 50KT 100NM 30KT 240NM FORECAST 24HF 051500UTC 19.5N 129.8E 90NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 100KT 45HF 061200UTC 21.3N 129.4E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 920HPA MXWD 100KT 69HF 071200UTC 24.1N 129.4E 220NM 70% MOVE N 07KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 100KT = ** WTNT80 EGRR 041654 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 04.07.2006 NO TROPICAL STORMS ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 041654 ** WTPH RPMM 041200 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 10 AT1200 04 JULY TYPHOON (EWINIAR) (0603) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELL ITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE SIX POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT TWO EAST MOVING NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHE NOMENAL SEAS WITHIN FOUR ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FIVE FOUR HECTOPASCAL MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR SIX METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ONE THREE METERS PERR SECOND WITHIN FOUR ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSTIONS AT 051200 ONE NINE POINT TWO NORTH ONE THREE ZERO POINT ZERO EAST AT 061200 TWO ONE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT SIX EAST AND 071200 TWO FOUR POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT THREE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA