** WTIN20 DEMS 040640 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 04-07-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL , AND EAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG LAT. 25.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPQ20 RJTD 040600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603) ANALYSIS PSTN 040600UTC 16.1N 132.5E GOOD MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 90NM 30KT 220NM FORECAST 24HF 050600UTC 18.2N 130.4E 90NM 70% MOVE NW 07KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 48HF 060600UTC 20.8N 129.4E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 06KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 090KT 72HF 070600UTC 23.7N 129.4E 220NM 70% MOVE N 07KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 090KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 040600 *** WARNING 040600. WARNING VALID 050600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 945 HPA AT 16.1N 132.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 18.2N 130.4E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 20.8N 129.4E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 23.7N 129.4E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 040600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY EWINIAR 0603 (0603) INITIAL TIME 040600 UTC 00HR 16.1N 132.6E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NW 15KM/H P+24HR 18.0N 130.5E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 20.2N 129.1E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 23.1N 128.8E 950HPA 45M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 040600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 8 NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR ANALYSIS POSITION 040600UTC 16.1N 132.5E MOVEMENT NNW 8KT PRES/VMAX 945HPA 86KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 050600UTC 18.2N 130.1E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 940HPA 89KT 48HR POSITION 060600UTC 21.1N 129.1E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 930HPA 95KT 72HR POSITION 070600UTC 24.1N 129.0E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 930HPA 95KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 040600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 9 FOR TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 040600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NORTH. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 040600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD03 INITIAL TIME 040600 UTC 00HR 21.9N 107.4E 998HPA 12M/S= P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTPH RPLL 040600 *** TTT WARNING 09 AT 0600 04 JULY TYPHOON (EWINIAR) (0603) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE SIX POINT ONE NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT FIVE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NROTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMNENAL SEAS WITHIN FOUR ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX THREE HECTO- PASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ONE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERRS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN FOUR ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 050600 ONE EIGHT POINT THREE NORTH ONE THREE ZERO ZERO POINT ZERO EAST AT 060600 TWO ONE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT ZERO EAST AND AT 070600 TWO FOUR POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT FOUR EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTPN31 PGTW 040900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 04W (EWINIAR) WARNING NR 019 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 040600Z --- NEAR 16.1N 132.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.1N 132.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 17.3N 131.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 18.3N 130.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 19.4N 129.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 20.5N 128.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 23.6N 128.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 28.2N 129.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 34.0N 133.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 040900Z POSITION NEAR 16.4N 132.2E. TYPHOON (TY) 04W (EWINIAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 655 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z.// ** WTPH20 RPMM 040600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 09 AT 0600 04 JULY TYPHOON (EWINIAR){0603} WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE SIX POINT ONE NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT FIVE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN FOUR ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX THREE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ONE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ONE THREE METER PER SECOND WITHIN FOUR ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 050600 ONE EIGHT POINT THREE NORTH ONE THREE ZERO POINT ZERO EAST AT 060600 TWO ONE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT ZERO EAST AND AT 070600 TWO FOUR POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT FOUR EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE -HOURLY WEATEHR REPORT TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA = ** WTJP31 RJTD 040900 *** WARNING 040900. WARNING VALID 050900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 945 HPA AT 16.5N 132.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050900UTC AT 18.8N 130.2E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 040900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603) ANALYSIS PSTN 040900UTC 16.5N 132.3E GOOD MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 90NM 30KT 220NM FORECAST 24HF 050900UTC 18.8N 130.2E 90NM 70% MOVE NW 07KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 45HF 060600UTC 20.8N 129.4E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 06KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 090KT 69HF 070600UTC 23.7N 129.4E 220NM 70% MOVE N 07KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 090KT =