** WTPQ20 BABJ 040000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY EWINIAR 0603 (0603) INITIAL TIME 040000 UTC 00HR 15.2N 133.2E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NW 15KM/H P+24HR 18.1N 131.0E 955HPA 45M/S P+48HR 20.5N 129.1E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 23.2N 128.2E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 040000 *** WARNING 040000. WARNING VALID 050000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 945 HPA AT 15.3N 133.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 17.0N 131.2E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 18.5N 130.0E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 20.2N 128.9E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 040000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603) ANALYSIS PSTN 040000UTC 15.3N 133.0E GOOD MOVE NW 07KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 90NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 050000UTC 17.0N 131.2E 90NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 48HF 060000UTC 18.5N 130.0E 150NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 930HPA MXWD 090KT 72HF 070000UTC 20.2N 128.9E 220NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 930HPA MXWD 090KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 040000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD03 INITIAL TIME 040000 UTC 00HR 21.0N 108.3E 998HPA 15M/S= P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 040000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 8 FOR TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 040000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL DECELERATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 040300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 04W (EWINIAR) WARNING NR 018 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 040000Z --- NEAR 15.4N 132.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 132.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 16.6N 131.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 17.6N 130.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 18.4N 129.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 19.3N 129.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 22.7N 128.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 15 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 28.3N 130.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 33.8N 134.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 040300Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 132.6E. TYPHOON (TY) 04W (EWINIAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 710 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z. // ** WTJP31 RJTD 040300 *** WARNING 040300. WARNING VALID 050300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 945 HPA AT 15.7N 132.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050300UTC AT 17.6N 130.8E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 040300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603) ANALYSIS PSTN 040300UTC 15.7N 132.8E GOOD MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 90NM 30KT 220NM FORECAST 24HF 050300UTC 17.6N 130.8E 90NM 70% MOVE NW 06KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 45HF 060000UTC 18.5N 130.0E 150NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 930HPA MXWD 090KT 69HF 070000UTC 20.2N 128.9E 220NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 930HPA MXWD 090KT = ** WTPH RPLL 040400 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 08 AT 0000 04 JULY TYPHOON (EWINIAR) (0603) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT THREE NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT NINE EAST MOVING NORWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADUIS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX THREE HECTOPASCAL MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ONE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADUIS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 030000 ONE SEVEN POINT THREE NORTH ONE THREE EAST AT 060000 TWO ZERO POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT FOUR EAST AND AT 070000 TWO THREE POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT TWO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD. ** WTNT80 EGRR 040541 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 040541