** WTPQ20 BABJ 031200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY EWINIAR 0603 (0603) INITIAL TIME 031200 UTC 00HR 14.1N 134.2E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NW 15KM/H P+24HR 16.6N 132.1E 955HPA 45M/S P+48HR 19.3N 130.1E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 22.1N 128.6E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 031200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD 03 INITIAL TIME 031200 UTC 00HR 18.8N 110.2E 998HPA 12M/S= P12HR NNW 15KM/H= ** WTJP21 RJTD 031200 *** WARNING 031200. WARNING VALID 041200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 950 HPA AT 14.1N 134.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 16.8N 132.7E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 18.3N 131.0E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 19.8N 129.3E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 031200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603) ANALYSIS PSTN 031200UTC 14.1N 134.1E GOOD MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 041200UTC 16.8N 132.7E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 48HF 051200UTC 18.3N 131.0E 150NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 930HPA MXWD 090KT 72HF 061200UTC 19.8N 129.3E 220NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 930HPA MXWD 090KT = ** WTPN31 PGTW 031500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 04W (EWINIAR) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 031200Z --- NEAR 14.1N 134.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 134.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 15.6N 133.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 16.9N 132.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 18.1N 131.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 19.4N 130.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 21.8N 129.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 25.7N 129.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 29.6N 131.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 031500Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 133.9E. TYPHOON (TY) 04W (EWINIAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.// ** WTPN22 PGTW 031030 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 031021Z JUL 06// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.4N 110.2E TO 19.7N 109.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 030900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 110.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 110.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 110.1E, APPROXIMATELY 130 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF HAINAN, CHINA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED AND THERE IS NOW NORTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 041030Z.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 031500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603) ANALYSIS PSTN 031500UTC 14.4N 133.7E GOOD MOVE NW 10KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 041500UTC 17.1N 132.0E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 45HF 051200UTC 18.3N 131.0E 150NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 930HPA MXWD 090KT 69HF 061200UTC 19.8N 129.3E 220NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 930HPA MXWD 090KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 031500 *** WARNING 031500. WARNING VALID 041500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 950 HPA AT 14.4N 133.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 041500UTC AT 17.1N 132.0E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTNT80 EGRR 031738 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 03.07.2006 NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 031738