** WTPQ20 BABJ 030600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY EWINIAR 0603 (0603) INITIAL TIME 030600 UTC 00HR 13.1N 134.4E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NW 10KM/H P+24HR 14.9N 132.5E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 16.9N 130.8E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 19.8N 128.9E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 030600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603) UPGRADED FROM STS ANALYSIS PSTN 030600UTC 13.1N 134.5E GOOD MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 970HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 040600UTC 15.8N 132.9E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 050600UTC 17.6N 131.4E 150NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 72HF 060600UTC 19.6N 129.6E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 06KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 030600 *** WARNING 030600. WARNING VALID 040600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0603 EWINIAR (0603) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 970 HPA AT 13.1N 134.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 15.8N 132.9E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 17.6N 131.4E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 19.6N 129.6E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 030600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD 03 INITIAL TIME 030600 UTC 00HR 17.4N 110.4E 1000HPA 12M/S P12HR NNW 10KM/H P+24HR 19.3N 108.5E 1002HPA 12M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 030600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 6 NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR ANALYSIS POSITION 030600UTC 13.1N 134.5E MOVEMENT NNW 5KT PRES/VMAX 970HPA 70KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 040600UTC 15.5N 132.9E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 78KT 48HR POSITION 050600UTC 17.6N 131.1E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT 72HR POSITION 060600UTC 19.7N 129.3E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 030600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 7 FOR TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 030600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTIN20 DEMS 030730 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 03-07-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL , AND EAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG LAT. 23.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPN31 PGTW 030900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 04W (EWINIAR) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 030600Z --- NEAR 13.1N 134.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 134.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 14.2N 133.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 15.5N 132.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 16.8N 131.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 18.0N 130.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 20.7N 129.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 24.2N 129.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 27.9N 130.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 030900Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 134.2E. TYPHOON (TY) 04W (EWINIAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TY 04W HAS ENHANCED THE NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF THE STEERING FLOW. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO STEER TY 04W TO THE NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 030900 *** WARNING 030900. WARNING VALID 040900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 960 HPA AT 13.5N 134.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040900UTC AT 16.3N 132.9E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 030900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603) ANALYSIS PSTN 030900UTC 13.5N 134.4E GOOD MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 040900UTC 16.3N 132.9E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 050600UTC 17.6N 131.4E 150NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 69HF 060600UTC 19.6N 129.6E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 06KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPQ31 PGUM 030956 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TYPHOON EWINIAR (04W) ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 PM GUAM LST MON JUL 3 2006 ...TYPHOON EWINIAR NOW TRACKING NORTH AWAY FROM MICRONESIA... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON EWINIAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 134.4 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 990 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA AND 360 MILES NORTHWEST OF YAP. TYPHOON EWINIAR IS MOVING NORTH AT 8 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 85 MPH. EWINIAR REMAINS A CATEGORY 1 TYPHOON ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON TROPICAL CYCLONE SCALE. EWINIAR IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROBABLY REACHING CATEGORY 2 TUESDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES FROM THE CENTER OF EWINIAR. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES. REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...13.3 DEGREES NORTH AND 134.4 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTH AT 8 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 85 MPH. THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ON TYPHOON EWINIAR. $$ STANKO ** WTPQ31 PGUM 030956 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TYPHOON EWINIAR (04W) ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 PM GUAM LST MON JUL 3 2006 ...TYPHOON EWINIAR NOW TRACKING NORTH AWAY FROM MICRONESIA... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON EWINIAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 134.4 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 990 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA AND 360 MILES NORTHWEST OF YAP. TYPHOON EWINIAR IS MOVING NORTH AT 8 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 85 MPH. EWINIAR REMAINS A CATEGORY 1 TYPHOON ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON TROPICAL CYCLONE SCALE. EWINIAR IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROBABLY REACHING CATEGORY 2 TUESDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES FROM THE CENTER OF EWINIAR. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES. REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...13.3 DEGREES NORTH AND 134.4 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTH AT 8 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 85 MPH. THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ON TYPHOON EWINIAR. $$ STANKO