** WTPQ20 BABJ 030000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS EWINIAR 0603 (0603) INITIAL TIME 030000 UTC 00HR 12.3N 134.4E 985HPA 28M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR NW 10KM/H P+24HR 14.3N 132.2E 965HPA 38M/S P+48HR 16.7N 130.4E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 19.6N 129.0E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 030000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS EWINIAR 0603 (0603) INITIAL TIME 030000 UTC 00HR 12.3N 134.4E 985HPA 28M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR NW 10KM/H P+24HR 14.3N 132.2E 965HPA 38M/S P+48HR 16.7N 130.4E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 19.6N 129.0E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 030000 *** WARNING 030000. WARNING VALID 040000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0603 EWINIAR (0603) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 985 HPA AT 12.3N 134.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 14.4N 133.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 16.7N 131.8E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 18.6N 130.0E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 030000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0603 EWINIAR (0603) UPGRADED FROM TS ANALYSIS PSTN 030000UTC 12.3N 134.5E FAIR MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 040000UTC 14.4N 133.2E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 06KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 48HF 050000UTC 16.7N 131.8E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 06KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 060000UTC 18.6N 130.0E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 06KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 030000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD 03 INITIAL TIME 030000 UTC 00HR 16.4N 110.0E 1002HPA 12M/S P12HR NW 10KM/H P+24HR 18.5N 107.0E 1002HPA 12M/S= ** WTIN20 DEMS 030109 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 02-07-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 2100 UTC (.) SUBJECT: DEPRESSION OVER BAY OF BENGAL THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER NORTH BAY OF BENGAL MOVED WESTWARDS AND CROSS ORISSA COAST BETWEEN PARADIP AND CHANDBALI AT AROUND 1500 UTC OF 2ND JULY 2006 IT LIES CENTERED AT 1800 UTC OF 2ND JULY 2006,OVER LAND NEAR LAT.20.0 DEG N AND LONG.86.0 DEG E CLOSE TO PURI. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A WESTERLY DIRECTION. BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH AND ADJOING WEST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. ---- ** WTPQ30 RJTD 030000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 6 FOR STS 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 030000 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL BE GRADED UP TO TY WITHIN 24 HOURS. STS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE SPIRAL CLOUD BANDS HAVE BECOME WELL ORGANIZED. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 030300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0603 EWINIAR (0603) ANALYSIS PSTN 030300UTC 12.7N 134.5E GOOD MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 30NM 30KT 170NM FORECAST 24HF 040300UTC 15.2N 133.1E 80NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 050000UTC 16.7N 131.8E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 06KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 060000UTC 18.6N 130.0E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 06KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 030300 *** WARNING 030300. WARNING VALID 040300. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 980 HPA AT 12.7N 134.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTH SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 170 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040300UTC AT 15.2N 133.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ31 PGUM 030340 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TYPHOON EWINIAR (04W) ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 PM GUAM LST MON JUL 3 2006 ...EWINIAR UPGRADED TO TYPHOON... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON EWINIAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 134.5 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 335 MILES NORTHWEST OF YAP. TYPHOON EWINIAR IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 6 MPH. THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 MPH. THIS MAKES EWINIAR A CATEGORY 1 TYPHOON ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON TROPICAL CYCLONE SCALE. EWINIAR IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES FROM THE CENTER OF EWINIAR. REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...12.8 DEGREES NORTH AND 134.5 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 6 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 PM GUAM LST. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE ** WTPH20 RPMM 030000 *** T T T SWTORM WARNING 04 AT 0000 03 JULY SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (EWINIAR)(0603) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE TWO POINT FOUR NORTH ONE THREE FOUR POINT FOUR EAST MOVING NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE EIGHT SEVEN HECTOPASCAL MAXIMUM WINDS TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 040000 ONE THREE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT SEVEN EAST AT 050000 ONE FIVE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT ZERO EAST AND AT 060000 ONE SEVEN POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT SIX EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPN31 PGTW 030300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 04W (EWINIAR) WARNING NR 014 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 04W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 030000Z --- NEAR 12.4N 134.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.4N 134.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 13.4N 133.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 14.5N 132.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 15.6N 131.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 16.7N 130.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 19.0N 129.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 22.5N 128.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 26.3N 128.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 030300Z POSITION NEAR 12.7N 134.0E. TYPHOON (TY) 04W (EWINIAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 030539 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 03.07.2006 NO TROPICAL STORMS ARE ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 3 DAYS THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 030539