** WTPQ20 BABJ 020600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS EWINIAR 0603 (0603) INITIAL TIME 020600 UTC 00HR 11.2N 133.4E 988HPA 25M/S 30KTS 260KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR NW 15KM/H P+24HR 13.4N 133.4E 970HPA 35M/S P+48HR 15.7N 131.5E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 18.8N 129.8E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 020600 *** WARNING 020600. WARNING VALID 030600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 992 HPA AT 11.2N 135.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 13.1N 133.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 15.9N 132.6E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 18.5N 131.2E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 020600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0603 EWINIAR (0603) ANALYSIS PSTN 020600UTC 11.2N 135.2E FAIR MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 140NM FORECAST 24HF 030600UTC 13.1N 133.8E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 06KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 48HF 040600UTC 15.9N 132.6E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 050600UTC 18.5N 131.2E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 020600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 4 NAME TS 0603 EWINIAR ANALYSIS POSITION 020600UTC 11.2N 135.2E MOVEMENT WNW 7KT PRES/VMAX 992HPA 41KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 030600UTC 13.2N 133.6E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT 48HR POSITION 040600UTC 15.8N 132.1E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT 72HR POSITION 050600UTC 18.9N 130.6E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 955HPA 80KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 020600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 5 FOR TS 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 020600 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 020600 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS EWINIAR 0603 (0603) INITIAL TIME 020600 UTC 00HR 11.2N 135.5E 988HPA 25M/S 30KTS 260KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR NW 15KM/H P+24HR 13.4N 133.4E 970HPA 35M/S P+48HR 15.7N 131.5E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 18.8N 129.8E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 020600 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS EWINIAR 0603 (0603) INITIAL TIME 020600 UTC 00HR 11.2N 135.5E 988HPA 25M/S 30KTS 260KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR NW 15KM/H P+24HR 13.4N 133.4E 970HPA 35M/S P+48HR 15.7N 131.5E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 18.8N 129.8E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTPN31 PGTW 020900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (EWINIAR) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 020600Z --- NEAR 11.2N 135.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.2N 135.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 12.0N 134.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 12.9N 133.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 14.0N 132.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 15.2N 131.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 17.9N 129.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 20.8N 128.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 24.6N 129.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT --- REMARKS: 020900Z POSITION NEAR 11.4N 135.1E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (EWINIAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 020900 *** WARNING 020900. WARNING VALID 030900. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 992 HPA AT 11.5N 135.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030900UTC AT 13.6N 133.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 020900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0603 EWINIAR (0603) ANALYSIS PSTN 020900UTC 11.5N 135.0E FAIR MOVE NW 10KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 140NM FORECAST 24HF 030900UTC 13.6N 133.6E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 06KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 45HF 040600UTC 15.9N 132.6E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 050600UTC 18.5N 131.2E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPH RPLL 020600 *** T T T GALE WARNING 01 AT 0600 02 JULY TROPICAL STORM (EWINIAR) (0603) WAS ESTMTD BASED ON SAT AND SURAFACE DATA AT 11.0N 135.3E. FORECAST TOMOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT 03MPS ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 200KMS RADIUS FROM CNTER ESTMTD CNTRL PRESSURE 994 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 200M PER SECOND NEAR CNTER 13MPS WITHIN 200KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CNTER FCST POSITION AT 030600 12.9N 133.2E AT 040600 15.5N 133.3E AND ST 05060018.6N 130.4E ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SENDTHREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTPQ31 PGUM 020959 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EWINIAR (04W) ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 PM GUAM LST SUN JUL 2 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM EWINIAR INTENSIFYING ONCE AGAIN AS IT CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWEST... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EWINIAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 135.1 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 240 MILES NORTHWEST OF YAP. TROPICAL STORM EWINIAR IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 6 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 MPH. THIS IS A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM ...CATEGORY B...ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON TROPICAL CYCLONE SCALE. EWINIAR IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...AND SHOULD BECOME A TYPHOON LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER OF EWINIAR. REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...11.4 DEGREES NORTH AND 135.1 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 6 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 AM MONDAY GUAM LST. $$ STANKO ** WTIN20 DEMS 021030 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 02-07-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) A DEEP DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OVER NORTH BAY OF BENGAL AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 IST OF 2ND JULY 2006 NEAR LAT 20.5 DEG N AND LONG 890.0 DEG E ABOUT 250 KM SOUTH EAST OF BALASORE. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND CROSS NORTH ORISSA AND ADJOINING WEST BENGAL COAST BETWEEN PARADIP AND DIGHA BY TOMORRLOW, 3RD JULY 2006 MORNING . BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH AND ADJOING WEST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. MSG OVER