** WTPQ20 BABJ 020000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS EWINIAR 0603 (0603) INITIAL TIME 020000 UTC 00HR 10.9N 135.9E 988HPA 25M/S 30KTS 260KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR NW 15KM/H P+24HR 13.3N 133.6E 970HPA 35M/S P+48HR 15.8N 131.6E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 18.7N 130.0E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 020000 *** WARNING 020000. WARNING VALID 030000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 992 HPA AT 10.8N 135.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 13.1N 134.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 15.8N 132.9E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 18.4N 131.6E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 020000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0603 EWINIAR (0603) ANALYSIS PSTN 020000UTC 10.8N 135.9E FAIR MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 140NM FORECAST 24HF 030000UTC 13.1N 134.4E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 06KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 48HF 040000UTC 15.8N 132.9E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 050000UTC 18.4N 131.6E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 020000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 020000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ31 PGUM 020341 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EWINIAR (04W) ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 PM GUAM LST SUN JUL 2 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM EWINIAR DRIFTING NORTHWEST... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EWINIAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 135.5 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 210 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF YAP. TROPICAL STORM EWINIAR IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 MPH. THIS IS A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM ...CATEGORY B...ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON TROPICAL CYCLONE SCALE. EWINIAR IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...AND SHOULD BECOME A TYPHOON TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER OF EWINIAR. REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...11.1 DEGREES NORTH AND 135.5 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 PM GUAM LST. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE ** WTJP31 RJTD 020300 *** WARNING 020300. WARNING VALID 030300. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 992 HPA AT 10.7N 135.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030300UTC AT 13.1N 134.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 020300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0603 EWINIAR (0603) ANALYSIS PSTN 020300UTC 10.7N 135.8E FAIR MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 140NM FORECAST 24HF 030300UTC 13.1N 134.3E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 06KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 45HF 040000UTC 15.8N 132.9E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 050000UTC 18.4N 131.6E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPN31 PGTW 020300 COR *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (EWINIAR) WARNING NR 010A CORRECTED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 020000Z --- NEAR 10.9N 135.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.9N 135.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 11.8N 134.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 12.7N 133.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 13.7N 132.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 15.0N 131.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 17.6N 130.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 20.2N 129.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 23.6N 129.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT --- REMARKS: 020300Z POSITION NEAR 11.1N 135.5E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (EWINIAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED MISSING 020300Z POSITION IN REMARKS.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 020300 COR *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (EWINIAR) WARNING NR 010A CORRECTED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 020000Z --- NEAR 10.9N 135.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.9N 135.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 11.8N 134.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 12.7N 133.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 13.7N 132.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 15.0N 131.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 17.6N 130.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 20.2N 129.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 23.6N 129.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT --- REMARKS: 020300Z POSITION NEAR 11.1N 135.5E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (EWINIAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED MISSING 020300Z POSITION IN REMARKS.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 020530 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 02.07.2006 TNO TROPICAL CYCLONES ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 020530