** WTNT80 EGRR 011805 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 01.07.2006 NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 011805 ** WTPQ20 BABJ 011800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS EWINIAR 0603 (0603) INITIAL TIME 011800 UTC 00HR 10.7N 136.2E 988HPA 25M/S 30KTS 260KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR NW 15KM/H P+24HR 13.1N 134.1E 970HPA 35M/S P+48HR 16.2N 132.8E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 19.1N 132.0E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 011800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0603 EWINIAR (0603) ANALYSIS PSTN 011800UTC 10.7N 136.3E FAIR MOVE NW 07KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 140NM FORECAST 24HF 021800UTC 13.1N 134.8E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 07KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 48HF 031800UTC 15.5N 133.5E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 06KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 041800UTC 18.1N 132.3E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 011800 *** WARNING 011800. WARNING VALID 021800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 992 HPA AT 10.7N 136.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 13.1N 134.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 15.5N 133.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 18.1N 132.3E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 011800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 3 NAME TS 0603 EWINIAR ANALYSIS POSITION 011800UTC 10.7N 136.3E MOVEMENT NW 7KT PRES/VMAX 992HPA 41KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 021800UTC 13.3N 134.9E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 58KT 48HR POSITION 031800UTC 15.8N 133.7E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT 72HR POSITION 041800UTC 18.5N 132.5E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN31 PGTW 012100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (EWINIAR) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 011800Z --- NEAR 10.7N 136.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.7N 136.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 11.9N 135.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 13.0N 133.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 14.0N 133.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 15.1N 132.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 17.9N 131.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 20.3N 130.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 24.0N 129.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT --- REMARKS: 012100Z POSITION NEAR 11.0N 135.7E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (EWINIAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 012100 *** WARNING 012100. WARNING VALID 022100. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 992 HPA AT 10.8N 136.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 022100UTC AT 13.1N 134.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 012100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0603 EWINIAR (0603) ANALYSIS PSTN 012100UTC 10.8N 136.0E FAIR MOVE NW 07KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 140NM FORECAST 24HF 022100UTC 13.1N 134.6E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 06KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 45HF 031800UTC 15.5N 133.5E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 06KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 041800UTC 18.1N 132.3E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPQ31 PGUM 012219 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EWINIAR (04W) ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 AM GUAM LST SUN JUL 2 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM EWINIAR STRUGGLING TO BECOME A TYPHOON... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EWINIAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 135.7 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 195 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF YAP 225 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NGULU 275 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ULITHI 270 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KOROR. TROPICAL STORM EWINIAR IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WITH A SLIGHT TURN TO THE WEST...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 MPH. THIS IS A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM ...CATEGORY B...ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON TROPICAL CYCLONE SCALE. EWINIAR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TYPHOON THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE CENTER OF EWINIAR. REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...11.0 DEGREES NORTH AND 135.7 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 PM GUAM LST. $$ PRIOR