** WTIN20 DEMS 010615 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 01-07-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTHWEST AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL, AND NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 25.0 DEG.NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????????? ** WTPQ20 BABJ 010600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS EWINIAR 0603 (0603) INITIAL TIME 010600 UTC 00HR 9.4N 137.4E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 150KM P12HR NW 15KM/H P+24HR 12.3N 136.0E 970HPA 35M/S P+48HR 14.7N 134.2E 955HPA 45M/S P+72HR 17.2N 131.3E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 010600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0603 EWINIAR (0603) ANALYSIS PSTN 010600UTC 09.3N 137.1E FAIR MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 140NM FORECAST 24HF 020600UTC 11.6N 136.1E 80NM 70% MOVE NNW 06KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 030600UTC 14.8N 134.7E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 72HF 040600UTC 18.0N 134.3E 220NM 70% MOVE N 08KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 010600 *** WARNING 010600. WARNING VALID 020600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 994 HPA AT 09.3N 137.1E CAROLINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 11.6N 136.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 14.8N 134.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 18.0N 134.3E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 010600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 2 NAME TS 0603 EWINIAR ANALYSIS POSITION 010600UTC 9.4N 137.0E MOVEMENT NW 12KT PRES/VMAX 995HPA 37KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 020600UTC 11.8N 136.3E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 58KT 48HR POSITION 030600UTC 14.6N 135.5E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT 72HR POSITION 040600UTC 17.4N 134.8E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ31 PGUM 010710 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EWINIAR (04W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 500 PM GUAM LST SAT JUL 1 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM EWINIAR BEGINS TO PULL AWAY FROM YAP... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YAP AND NGULU IN YAP STATE. AT 4 PM GUAM LST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EWINIAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 137.0 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 70 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NGULU 75 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF YAP 220 MILES NORTHEAST OF KOROR 180 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ULITHI. TROPICAL STORM EWINIAR IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 60 MPH. EWINIAR IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES FROM THE CENTER OF EWINIAR. REPEATING THE 4 PM POSITION...9.2 DEGREES NORTH AND 137.0 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 PM GUAM LST. $$ STANKO ** WTPQ30 RJTD 010600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 010600 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE. TS WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER HAS BECOME COLDER AND CYCLONE WILL MOVE INTO HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 010900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0603 EWINIAR (0603) ANALYSIS PSTN 010900UTC 09.7N 137.0E FAIR MOVE NW 08KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 140NM FORECAST 24HF 020900UTC 12.3N 135.7E 80NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 030600UTC 14.8N 134.7E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 69HF 040600UTC 18.0N 134.3E 220NM 70% MOVE N 08KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 010900 *** WARNING 010900. WARNING VALID 020900. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 992 HPA AT 09.7N 137.0E CAROLINES MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020900UTC AT 12.3N 135.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ31 PGUM 010955 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EWINIAR (04W) ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 PM GUAM LST SAT JUL 1 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM EWINIAR WOBBLES CLOSER TO YAP... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NGULU IS CANCELED AS OF 8 PM GUAM LST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YAP. AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EWINIAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 137.1 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NGULU 70 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF YAP 250 MILES NORTHEAST OF KOROR 170 MILES WEST OF ULITHI. TROPICAL STORM EWINIAR IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 60 MPH. EWINIAR IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND MAY BECOME A TYPHOON SOMETIME SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES FROM THE CENTER OF EWINIAR. REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...9.7 DEGREES NORTH AND 137.1 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 11 PM GUAM LST...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 2 AM SUNDAY GUAM LST. $$ STANKO ** WTPN31 PGTW 010900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (EWINIAR) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010600Z --- NEAR 9.2N 137.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 9.2N 137.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 10.4N 135.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 11.6N 134.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 12.9N 133.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 14.3N 132.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 17.3N 131.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 20.4N 130.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 24.3N 131.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT --- REMARKS: 010900Z POSITION NEAR 9.5N 136.7E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (EWINIAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF YAP HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.// ** WTPQ81 PGUM 011051 *** HLSPQ1 PMZ171-011700- TROPICAL STORM EWINIAR LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 900 PM GUAM LST SAT JUL 1 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM EWINIAR INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM YAP... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF YAP STATE. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NGULU IN YAP STATE IS CANCELED AT 8 PM GUAM LST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YAP. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EWINIAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 137.1 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NGULU 70 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF YAP 250 MILES NORTHEAST OF KOROR 170 MILES WEST OF ULITHI. TROPICAL STORM EWINIAR IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 60 MPH. ...YAP... REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE DAMAGING WINDS SUBSIDE. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS PROVIDED BY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE. ...WIND INFORMATION... SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES...DECREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH SUNDAY. ...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION... EXPECT HAZARDOUS SURF AT HEIGHTS OF 10 TO 12 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG ALL REEFS. ...OTHER STORM EFFECTS... RAINFALL OF UP TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY. ...NGULU... REMAIN IN SHELTER AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE UNTIL WINDS SUBSIDE. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS PROVIDED BY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE. AVOID INTER-ISLAND BOAT TRAVEL UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED. ...WIND INFORMATION... SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 MPH WILL DIMINISH FURTHER TO 15 TO 25 MPH ON SUNDAY. ...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION... EXPECT HAZARDOUS SURF AT 9 TO 12 FEET ALONG ALL REEFS THROUGH TONIGHT. ...OTHER STORM EFFECTS... RAINFALL OF UP TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3 AM SUNDAY GUAM LST. $$ STANKO