** WTPQ20 BABJ 010000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS EWINIAR 0603 (0603) INITIAL TIME 010000 UTC 00HR 8.4N 137.8E 998HPA 18M/S 30KTS 100KM P12HR NW 15KM/H P+24HR 11.3N 136.3E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 13.7N 134.4E 975HPA 33M/S P+72HR 16.0N 132.1E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 010000 *** WARNING 010000. WARNING VALID 020000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 1000 HPA AT 08.5N 137.6E CAROLINES MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 10.8N 137.4E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 13.3N 136.6E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 16.8N 135.6E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 010000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0603 EWINIAR (0603) ANALYSIS PSTN 010000UTC 08.5N 137.6E FAIR MOVE N 10KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 120NM FORECAST 24HF 020000UTC 10.8N 137.4E 90NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 030000UTC 13.3N 136.6E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 06KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 040000UTC 16.8N 135.6E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTPQ31 PGUM 010052 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EWINIAR (04W) SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 1100 AM GUAM LST SAT JUL 1 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM EWINIAR TURNING NORTH CLOSER TO YAP... AS OF 11 AM GUAM LST...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR YAP. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NGULU IN YAP STATE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KOROR AND KAYANGEL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU. AT 10 AM GUAM LST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EWINIAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 8.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 137.7 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 15 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NGULU 75 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YAP 200 MILES EAST OF KAYANGEL 235 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF KOROR 165 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ULITHI 430 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SONSOROL. TROPICAL STORM EWINIAR IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH. EWINIAR IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. REPEATING THE 10 AM POSITION...8.5 DEGREES NORTH AND 137.7 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 PM GUAM LST...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 5 PM GUAM LST $$ MIDDLEBROOKE ** WTPQ30 RJTD 010000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 2 FOR TS 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 010000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE. TS WILL MOVE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ81 PGUM 010125 *** HLSPQ1 PMZ161-171-010500- TROPICAL STORM EWINIAR LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 1125 AM GUAM LST SAT JUL 1 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM EWINIAR PASSING SOUTHWEST OF NGULU... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF YAP STATE AND THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... AS OF 1100 AM GUAM LST...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR YAP. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NGULU IN YAP STATE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KOROR AND KAYANGEL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 AM GUAM LST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EWINIAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 8.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 137.7 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 15 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NGULU 75 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YAP 200 MILES EAST OF KAYANGEL 235 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF KOROR 165 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ULITHI 430 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SONSOROL. TROPICAL STORM EWINIAR IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH. ...YAP... PREPARATIONS FOR THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BE COMPLETED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS PROVIDED BY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE. AVOID INTER-ISLAND BOAT TRAVEL UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED. ...WIND INFORMATION... SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 50 TO 60 MPH WILL GUST TO 70 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND DIMINISH TO 25 TO 40 MPH BY MIDNIGHT. ...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION... EXPECT HAZARDOUS SURF AT HEIGHTS NEAR 9 TO 12 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG ALL REEFS. ...OTHER STORM EFFECTS... HEAVY RAINS PRODUCING ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 INCHES OR MORE ARE LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY. ...NGULU... BE PREPARED FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... ALONG WITH TORRENTIAL RAIN. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS PROVIDED BY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE. AVOID INTER-ISLAND BOAT TRAVEL UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED. ...WIND INFORMATION... NORTHWEST WINDS AT 40 TO 45 MPH WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR 55 MPH IN HEAVY SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 TO 30 MPH OVERNIGHT. ...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION... EXPECT HAZARDOUS SURF AT 9 TO 12 FEET ALONG ALL REEFS THROUGH TONIGHT. ...OTHER STORM EFFECTS... HEAVY RAINS OF 6 INCHES OR MORE ARE LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY. ...KOROR AND KAYANGEL... RESIDENTS OF KOROR...KAYANGEL AND NEARBY ISLANDS SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS PROVIDED BY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE. AVOID INTER-ISLAND BOAT TRAVEL UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED. ...WIND INFORMATION... EXPECT WEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT. BUT IF TROPICAL STORM EWINIAR TAKES A MORE WESTWARD TRACK THAN EXPECTED...DAMAGING WINDS AROUND 40 MPH OR HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE ON KOROR AND KAYANGEL LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. ...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION... SURF WILL BUILD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXPECT HAZARDOUS SURF AT HEIGHTS NEAR 8 TO 10 FEET TONIGHT ALONG SOUTHWEST AND WEST FACING REEFS. ...OTHER STORM EFFECTS... HEAVY RAINS PRODUCING ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 INCHES OR MORE ARE LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY. THESE HEAVY RAINS COULD PRODUCE MUDSLIDES ON KOROR AND BABELDAOB. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3 PM GUAM LST. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE ** WTPN31 PGTW 010300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (EWINIAR) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010000Z --- NEAR 8.5N 137.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 8.5N 137.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 9.8N 137.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 10.9N 136.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 11.9N 135.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 13.1N 134.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 15.4N 133.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 18.0N 131.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 20.7N 131.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT --- REMARKS: 010300Z POSITION NEAR 8.8N 137.5E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (EWINIAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF YAP HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 010300 *** WARNING 010300. WARNING VALID 020300. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 996 HPA AT 09.0N 137.5E CAROLINES MOVING NORTH 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020300UTC AT 11.6N 137.3E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 010300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0603 EWINIAR (0603) ANALYSIS PSTN 010300UTC 09.0N 137.5E FAIR MOVE N 12KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 140NM FORECAST 24HF 020300UTC 11.6N 137.3E 90NM 70% MOVE N 06KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 030000UTC 13.3N 136.6E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 06KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 69HF 040000UTC 16.8N 135.6E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTPQ31 PGUM 010358 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EWINIAR (04W) ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 PM GUAM LST SAT JUL 1 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM EWINIAR NEAR ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO YAP... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YAP AND NGULU IN YAP STATE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS OF 2 PM GUAM LST...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR KAYANGEL AND KOROR IS CANCELLED. AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EWINIAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 137.7 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 55 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NGULU 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF YAP 255 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF KOROR 140 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ULITHI. TROPICAL STORM EWINIAR IS MOVING NORTH AT 8 MPH...AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EWINIAR SHOULD PASS JUST WEST OF YAP LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 60 MPH. EWINIAR IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...9.1 DEGREES NORTH AND 137.7 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTH AT 8 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 5 PM GUAM LST...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 8 PM. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE ** WTPN31 PGTW 010300 COR *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (EWINIAR) WARNING NR 006A CORRECTED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010000Z --- NEAR 8.5N 137.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 8.5N 137.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 9.8N 137.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 10.9N 136.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 11.9N 135.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 13.1N 134.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 15.4N 133.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 18.0N 131.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 20.7N 131.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT --- REMARKS: 010300Z POSITION NEAR 8.8N 137.5E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (EWINIAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF YAP HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED DISTANCE FROM YAP IN REMARKS.// ** WTPQ81 PGUM 010433 *** HLSPQ1 PMZ161-171-011100- TROPICAL STORM EWINIAR LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 230 PM GUAM LST SAT JUL 1 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM EWINIAR AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO YAP... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF YAP STATE AND THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR KOROR AND KAYANGEL WAS CANCELLED AT 2 PM GUAM LST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YAP AND NGULU IN YAP STATE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EWINIAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 137.7 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 55 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NGULU 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF YAP 255 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF KOROR 140 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ULITHI. TROPICAL STORM EWINIAR IS MOVING NORTH AT 8 MPH...AND IS PASSING JUST WEST OF YAP. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 60 MPH. ...YAP... REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE DAMAGING WINDS SUBSIDE. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS PROVIDED BY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE. ...WIND INFORMATION... SOUTH WINDS AT 35 TO 45 MPH WILL GUST TO 55 MPH THIS AFTERNOON... THEN SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND DIMINISH TO 25 TO 35 MPH. ...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION... EXPECT HAZARDOUS SURF AT HEIGHTS OF 9 TO 12 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG ALL REEFS. ...OTHER STORM EFFECTS... RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY. ...NGULU... REMAIN IN SHELTER AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE UNTIL WINDS SUBSIDE. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS PROVIDED BY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE. AVOID INTER-ISLAND BOAT TRAVEL UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED. ...WIND INFORMATION... SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 35 TO 40 MPH WILL DIMINISH TO 20 TO 30 MPH OVERNIGHT. ...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION... EXPECT HAZARDOUS SURF AT 9 TO 12 FEET ALONG ALL REEFS THROUGH TONIGHT. ...OTHER STORM EFFECTS... HEAVY RAINS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY. ...KOROR AND KAYANGEL... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED. NEVERTHELESS... INTER-ISLAND BOAT TRAVEL SHOULD BE AVOIDED UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED. ...WIND INFORMATION... EXPECT WEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH IN SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT. ...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION... EXPECT HAZARDOUS SURF AT HEIGHTS OF 10 TO 12 FEET TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ALONG SOUTHWEST AND WEST FACING REEFS. FOR MORE DETAILS...SEE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNDER WMO HEADER WHPQ40 PGUM. ...OTHER STORM EFFECTS... HEAVY RAINS PRODUCING ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9 PM GUAM LST. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE ** WTNT80 EGRR 010517 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 01.07.2006 NO TROPICAL STORMS ARE ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 010517