** WTIN20 DEMS 300750 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 30-06-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL, AND ANDAMAN SEA AND ALSO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 24.0 DEG. NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????????? ** WTPQ20 RJTD 300600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 300600UTC 06.6N 138.6E FAIR MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 1006HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 010600UTC 08.5N 137.5E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ31 PGUM 300709 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 500 PM GUAM LST FRI JUN 30 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W SOUTH OF YAP... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KOROR AND KAYANGEL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU...AND FOR NGULU IN YAP STATE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS. AT 4 PM GUAM LST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 04W WAS ESTIMATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 6.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 138.5 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NGULU 190 MILES SOUTH OF YAP 225 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ULITHI 280 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR AND KAYANGEL 445 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SONSOROL. TD 04W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 6 MPH...AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. REPEATING THE 4 PM POSITION...6.7 DEGREES NORTH AND 138.5 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 6 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 PM GUAM LST...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 11 PM. $$ ZIOBRO ** WTPQ30 RJTD 300600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 06.6N 138.6E 1.GENERAL COMMENTS POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 300600 UTC IS FAIR. TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DECELERATE. TD WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD FEATURES OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW HAVE BECOME DISTINCT AND CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 300900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W WARNING NR 003 RELOCATED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 300600Z --- NEAR 6.7N 138.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 6.7N 138.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 7.1N 137.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 7.7N 137.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 8.8N 136.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 10.0N 136.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 12.6N 135.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 300900Z POSITION NEAR 6.8N 138.3E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 04W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM SOUTH OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CIRCULATION HAS CONSOLIDATED TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS WARNING POSITION. A 292301Z SSM/I PASS CORROBORATES THIS RELOCATION 50 NM (APPROX) TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING BETWEEN 30 KNOTS AND 35 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z, 302100Z, 010300Z AND 010900Z.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 300900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 300900UTC 07.0N 138.4E FAIR MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 1006HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 010900UTC 08.8N 137.4E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ31 PGUM 300955 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 PM GUAM LST FRI JUN 30 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W SOUTH OF YAP MOVING SLOWLY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR FOR NGULU IN YAP STATE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KOROR AND KAYANGEL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS. AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 04W WAS ESTIMATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 6.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 138.3 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 115 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NGULU 185 MILES SOUTH OF YAP 230 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ULITHI 265 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR AND KAYANGEL 430 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SONSOROL. TD 04W IS MOVING WEST AT 6 MPH...AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...6.8 DEGREES NORTH AND 138.3 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 6 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 11 PM GUAM LST...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 2 AM SATURDAY. $$ ZIOBRO ** WTPQ31 PGUM 301010 CCA *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 PM GUAM LST FRI JUN 30 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W SOUTH OF YAP MOVING SLOWLY... AS OF 8 PM A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NGULU IN YAP STATE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KOROR AND KAYANGEL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS. AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 04W WAS ESTIMATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 6.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 138.3 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 115 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NGULU 185 MILES SOUTH OF YAP 230 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ULITHI 265 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR AND KAYANGEL 430 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SONSOROL. TD 04W IS MOVING WEST AT 6 MPH...AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...6.8 DEGREES NORTH AND 138.3 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST AT 6 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 11 PM GUAM LST...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 2 AM SATURDAY. $$ ZIOBRO ** WTPQ81 PGUM 301049 *** HLSPQ1 PMZ161-171-301700- TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 900 PM GUAM LST FRI JUN 30 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWEST... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND YAP STATE. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... AS OF 8 PM A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NGULU IN YAP STATE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KOROR AND KAYANGEL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 04W WAS ESTIMATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 6.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 138.3 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 115 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NGULU 185 MILES SOUTH OF YAP 230 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ULITHI 265 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR AND KAYANGEL 430 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SONSOROL. TD 04W IS MOVING WEST AT 6 MPH...AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS EXPECTED TO PASS BETWEEN KOROR AND NGULU LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY AS A TROPICAL STORM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. ...KOROR AND KAYANGEL... RESIDENTS OF KOROR...KAYANGEL AND NEARBY ISLANDS SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS PROVIDED BY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE. AVOID INTER-ISLAND BOAT TRAVEL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ...WIND INFORMATION... WINDS MAY REACH 40 MPH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION... HAZARDOUS SURF AT 8 TO 10 FEET IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ...OTHER STORM EFFECTS... HEAVY RAINS PRODUCING ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 INCHES OR MORE ARE LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY. THESE HEAVY RAINS COULD PRODUCE MUDSLIDES ON KOROR AND BABELDAOB. ...NGULU... RESIDENTS OF NGULU SHOULD PREPARE FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS PROVIDED BY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE. AVOID INTER-ISLAND BOAT TRAVEL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ...WIND INFORMATION... WINDS MAY REACH 45 TO 50 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SUNDAY. ...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION... HAZARDOUS SURF AT 9 TO 12 FEET IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ...OTHER STORM EFFECTS... HEAVY RAINS PRODUCING ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 INCHES OR MORE ARE LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3 AM SATURDAY GUAM LST. $$ ZIOBRO