** WTIN20 DEMS 290740 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 29-06-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL, AND ANDAMAN SEA AND ALSO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 22.5 DEG. NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????????? ** WTPN31 PGTW 292100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/260752JUN2004// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 291800Z --- NEAR 6.1N 138.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 6.1N 138.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 6.4N 137.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 6.9N 137.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 7.6N 136.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 8.6N 136.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 11.1N 135.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 292100Z POSITION NEAR 6.2N 138.3E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 04W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM SOUTH OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 290551Z JUN 06 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 290600). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z, 300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z.// ** WTPQ31 PGUM 292156 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 AM GUAM LST FRI JUN 30 2006 ...NEWLY-FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W SOUTH OF YAP... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF YAP STATE AND THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU. AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 04W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 6.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 138.3 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 155 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NGULU 230 MILES SOUTH OF YAP 270 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ULITHI 280 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR AND KAYANGEL 425 MILES EAST OF SONSOROL. TD 04W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 6 MPH...AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...6.2 DEGREES NORTH AND 138.3 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 6 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 1 PM GUAM LST. $$ PRIOR