** WTPQ20 BABJ 280600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS JELAWAT 0602 (0602) INITIAL TIME 280600 UTC 00HR 19.7N 111.5E 995HPA 20M/S 30KTS 130KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 21.9N 109.8E 990HPA 20M/S P+48HR 24.9N 109.9E 10004HPA 12M/S= ** WTIN20 DEMS 280640 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 28-06-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER AND SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL, AND ANDAMAN SEA AND ALSO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 25 DEG. NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????????? ** WTPQ20 RJTD 280600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0602 JELAWAT (0602) ANALYSIS PSTN 280600UTC 19.0N 111.7E FAIR MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 80NM FORECAST 24HF 290600UTC 21.3N 110.0E 90NM 70% MOVE NW 06KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT 48HF 300600UTC 22.6N 108.7E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP21 RJTD 280600 *** WARNING 280600. WARNING VALID 290600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0602 JELAWAT (0602) 994 HPA AT 19.0N 111.7E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 21.3N 110.0E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 22.6N 108.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1004 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 280600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 3 NAME TS 0602 JELAWAT ANALYSIS POSITION 280600UTC 19.1N 111.8E MOVEMENT NNW 5KT PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 290600UTC 21.9N 110.2E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 996HPA 35KT 36HR POSITION 291800UTC 23.5N 110.0E WITHIN 0NM PRES 1000HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 280600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 5 FOR TS 0602 JELAWAT (0602) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 280600 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 280600 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS JELAWAT 0602 (0602) INITIAL TIME 280600 UTC 00HR 19.7N 111.5E 995HPA 20M/S 30KTS 130KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 21.9N 109.8E 990HPA 20M/S P+48HR 24.9N 109.9E 1004HPA 12M/S= ** WTSS20 VHHH 280745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 280600 UTC, TROPICAL STORM JELAWAT (0602) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (111.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 290600 UTC TWO TWO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (22.1 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (109.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 300600 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 280745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 280600 UTC, TROPICAL STORM JELAWAT (0602) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (111.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 290600 UTC TWO TWO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (22.1 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (109.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 300600 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPN31 PGTW 280900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (JELAWAT) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 280600Z --- NEAR 19.7N 111.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 111.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 20.7N 109.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 21.8N 109.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 23.1N 108.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 280900Z POSITION NEAR 20.0N 110.8E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (JELAWAT) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF HAINAN, CHINA HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z AND 290900Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 280900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS JELAWAT 0602 (0602) INITIAL TIME 280900 UTC 00HR 19.9N 111.2E 995HPA 20M/S 30KTS 130KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 22.0N 109.9E 995HPA 18M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 280900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0602 JELAWAT (0602) ANALYSIS PSTN 280900UTC 19.5N 111.5E FAIR MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 70NM FORECAST 24HF 290900UTC 20.7N 109.8E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT 45HF 300600UTC 22.6N 108.7E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTSS20 VHHH 281045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 280900 UTC, TROPICAL STORM JELAWAT (0602) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (110.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 290900 UTC TWO TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (22.4 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (109.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 300900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 281045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 280900 UTC, TROPICAL STORM JELAWAT (0602) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (110.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 290900 UTC TWO TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (22.4 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (109.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 300900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND.