** WTSR20 WSSS 271800 *** NO STORM WARNING ** WTSR20 WSSS 271800 CCA *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 280000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS JELAWAT 0602 (0602) INITIAL TIME 280000 UTC 00HR 19.0N 111.9E 995HPA 20M/S 30KTS 130KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 22.1N 111.9E 990HPA 20M/S P+48HR 25.2N 110.7E 1004HPA 12M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 280000 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS JELAWAT 0602 (0602) INITIAL TIME 280000 UTC 00HR 19.0N 111.9E 995HPA 20M/S 30KTS 130KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 22.1N 110.5E 990HPA 20M/S P+48HR 25.2N 110.7E 1004HPA 12M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 280000 *** WARNING 280000. WARNING VALID 290000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0602 JELAWAT (0602) 994 HPA AT 18.6N 111.8E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 290000UTC AT 21.3N 110.5E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 300000UTC AT 22.4N 109.8E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1004 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 280000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0602 JELAWAT (0602) ANALYSIS PSTN 280000UTC 18.6N 111.8E FAIR MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 80NM FORECAST 24HF 290000UTC 21.3N 110.5E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 300000UTC 22.4N 109.8E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 280000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 0602 JELAWAT (0602) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 280000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 280145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 280000 UTC, TROPICAL STORM JELAWAT (0602) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (111.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 290000 UTC TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (21.8 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (110.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 300000 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 280145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 280000 UTC, TROPICAL STORM JELAWAT (0602) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (111.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 290000 UTC TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (21.8 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (110.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 300000 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPN31 PGTW 280300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (JELAWAT) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 280000Z --- NEAR 19.2N 111.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 111.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 20.3N 110.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 21.5N 110.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 23.3N 109.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 280300Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 111.5E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (JELAWAT) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 280300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS JELAWAT 0602 (0602) INITIAL TIME 280300 UTC 00HR 19.3N 111.6E 995HPA 20M/S 30KTS 130KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 280300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0602 JELAWAT (0602) ANALYSIS PSTN 280300UTC 19.0N 111.8E FAIR MOVE NNW 06KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 80NM FORECAST 24HF 290300UTC 21.6N 110.3E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 45HF 300000UTC 22.4N 109.8E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTSS20 VHHH 280445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 280300 UTC, TROPICAL STORM JELAWAT (0602) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (19.3 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (111.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 290300 UTC TWO TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (22.0 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (110.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 300300 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 280445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 280300 UTC, TROPICAL STORM JELAWAT (0602) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (19.3 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (111.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 290300 UTC TWO TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (22.0 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (110.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 300300 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTNT80 EGRR 280517 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 28.06.2006 NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 280517