** WTSR20 WSSS 270600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 271200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS JELAWAT 0602 (0602) INITIAL TIME 271200 UTC 00HR 18.1N 113.8E 996HPA 18M/S 30KTS 120KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 21.6N 111.9E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 24.4N 111.3E 996HPA 18M/S P+72HR 26.8N 111.8E 1004HPA 12M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 271200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0602 JELAWAT (0602) ANALYSIS PSTN 271200UTC 17.9N 113.3E POOR MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 60NM FORECAST 24HF 281200UTC 20.5N 111.9E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 291200UTC 22.1N 111.0E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 72HF 301200UTC 23.5N 110.7E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP21 RJTD 271200 *** WARNING 271200. WARNING VALID 281200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0602 JELAWAT (0602) 998 HPA AT 17.9N 113.3E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 281200UTC AT 20.5N 111.9E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 291200UTC AT 22.1N 111.0E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 23.5N 110.7E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1004 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 271345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TROPICAL DEPRESSION JELAWAT (0602) HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 HECTOPASCALS. AT 271200 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (18.0 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (113.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 281200 UTC TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (20.6 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (111.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 291200 UTC TWO TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (22.8 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (110.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 301200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 271345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TROPICAL DEPRESSION JELAWAT (0602) HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 HECTOPASCALS. AT 271200 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (18.0 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (113.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 281200 UTC TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (20.6 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (111.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 291200 UTC TWO TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (22.8 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (110.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 301200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPN31 PGTW 271500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (JELAWAT) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 271200Z --- NEAR 17.9N 113.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 113.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 19.3N 112.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 20.8N 112.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 22.2N 111.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 23.6N 111.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 271500Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 113.5E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (JELAWAT) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 271500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS JELAWAT 0602 (0602) INITIAL TIME 271500 UTC 00HR 18.2N 113.5E 995HPA 20M/S 30KTS 130KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 21.3N 111.9E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 24.0N 111.3E 1000HPA 16M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 271500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0602 JELAWAT (0602) ANALYSIS PSTN 271500UTC 18.2N 112.8E FAIR MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 60NM FORECAST 24HF 281500UTC 20.7N 111.6E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 291200UTC 22.1N 111.0E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 69HF 301200UTC 23.5N 110.7E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTSS20 VHHH 271645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 271500 UTC, TROPICAL STORM JELAWAT (0602) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (18.2 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (113.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 281500 UTC TWO ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (20.9 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (111.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 291500 UTC TWO THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (23.0 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (110.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 301500 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 271645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 271500 UTC, TROPICAL STORM JELAWAT (0602) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (18.2 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (113.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 281500 UTC TWO ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (20.9 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (111.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 291500 UTC TWO THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (23.0 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (110.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 301500 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTNT80 EGRR 271712 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 27.06.2006 NO TROPICAL STORMS ARE ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 271712