** WTPQ20 BABJ 270600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NAMELESS 0602 (06XX) INITIAL TIME 270600 UTC 00HR 17.1N 115.1E 996HPA 18M/S 30KTS 120KM P12HR NW 10KM/H P+24HR 20.0N 112.8E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 22.5N 111.4E 990HPA 23M/S P+72HR 25.2N 111.0E 1000HPA 15M/S= ** WTIN20 DEMS 270700 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 27-06-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL, AND ANDAMAN SEA AND ALSO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 25 DEG. NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????????? ** WTPQ20 RJTD 270600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0602 JELAWAT (0602) UPGRADED FROM TD ANALYSIS PSTN 270600UTC 17.5N 114.3E POOR MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 60NM FORECAST 24HF 280600UTC 19.5N 112.6E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 06KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 48HF 290600UTC 21.4N 111.5E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 72HF 300600UTC 23.5N 110.7E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP21 RJTD 270600 *** WARNING 270600. WARNING VALID 280600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0602 JELAWAT (0602) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA AT 17.5N 114.3E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 19.5N 112.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 21.4N 111.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 23.5N 110.7E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1004 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 270600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 0602 JELAWAT (0602) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 270600 UTC IS POOR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 270600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 1 NAME TS 0602 JELAWAT ANALYSIS POSITION 270600UTC 17.5N 114.3E MOVEMENT NNW 8KT PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 35KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 280600UTC 19.8N 112.3E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT 48HR POSITION 290600UTC 22.0N 111.1E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT 72HR POSITION 300600UTC 24.4N 110.6E WITHIN 0NM PRES 1000HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTSS20 VHHH 270745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (0602) WAS NAMED AS JELAWAT. AT 270600 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (17.3 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (114.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 280600 UTC ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (112.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 290600 UTC TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (21.6 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (111.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 300600 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 270745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (0602) WAS NAMED AS JELAWAT. AT 270600 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (17.3 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (114.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 280600 UTC ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (112.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 290600 UTC TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (21.6 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (111.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 300600 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPN31 PGTW 270900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 03W WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 270600Z --- NEAR 17.4N 114.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 17.4N 114.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 18.9N 113.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 20.3N 112.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 21.7N 112.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 23.1N 111.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 26.0N 111.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 270900Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 114.5E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REFLECT FLARING CONVECTION AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT CON- TINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. TS 03W HAS BEGUN TO SLOW OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS BUT WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z, 272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 270900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS JELAWAT 0602 (0602) INITIAL TIME 270900 UTC 00HR 17.6N 114.6E 996HPA 18M/S 30KTS 120KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 20.6N 112.6E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 23.2N 111.5E 996HPA 18M/S P+72HR 26.0N 111.4E 1002HPA 15M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 270900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0602 JELAWAT (0602) ANALYSIS PSTN 270900UTC 17.8N 113.7E POOR MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 60NM FORECAST 24HF 280900UTC 20.1N 112.3E 80NM 70% MOVE NNW 06KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 45HF 290600UTC 21.4N 111.5E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 69HF 300600UTC 23.5N 110.7E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 271000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS JELAWAT 0602 (0602) INITIAL TIME 271000 UTC 00HR 17.8N 114.3E 996HPA 18M/S 30KTS 120KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 271045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 270900 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION JELAWAT (0602) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (17.7 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (114.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 280900 UTC TWO ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (20.2 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (112.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 290900 UTC TWO TWO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (22.3 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (110.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 300900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 271045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 270900 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION JELAWAT (0602) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (17.7 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (114.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 280900 UTC TWO ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (20.2 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (112.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 290900 UTC TWO TWO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (22.3 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (110.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 300900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND.