** WTIN20 DEMS 260700 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 26-06-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER EAST ARABIAN SEA AND SOUTH WEST. SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL, AND SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 25 DEG. NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????????? ** WTPQ20 RJTD 260600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 260600UTC 14.5N 118.2E FAIR MOVE WNW 15KT PRES 1004HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 270600UTC 15.0N 115.0E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 260600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 14.5N 118.2E 1.GENERAL COMMENTS POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 260600 UTC IS FAIR. TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TD WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL MOVE INTO HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 260900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/252221ZJUN2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 260600Z --- NEAR 14.0N 118.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N 118.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 15.0N 116.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 16.1N 115.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 17.0N 114.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 18.0N 113.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 19.8N 111.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: 260900Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 117.9E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION AROUND A WELL ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH- WEST ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 252221ZJUN2006 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 252230). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z.// ** WTPH20 RPMM 260600 *** TTT GALE WARNING 10 AT 0600 26 JUNE TROPICAL STORM WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FOUR POINT ONE NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT TWO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 270600 ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE ONE SIX POINT THREE EAST AT 280600 ONE FIVE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE ONE FOUR POINT THREE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA = ** WTPQ20 RJTD 260900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 260900UTC 14.7N 117.7E FAIR MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 1004HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 270900UTC 16.1N 114.4E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT =