** WTPN21 PGTW 252230 ***
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 252221ZJUN2006//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.8N 120.5E TO 15.0N 116.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM
AGERY AT 251800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.8N 120.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.1N
124.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 120.4E, APPROXIMATELY 110
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS RENEWED CONVECTION ON THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DISTURBANCE AS IT EMERGES FROM
THE PHILIPPINES AND ENTERS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. A 251942Z
AMSU-B IMAGE REVEALS DEVELOPING BANDS OF CONVECTION APPROACHING
AN ORGANIZING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS IN A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH FAVORABLE ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. GIVEN THE IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ADDITIONAL
ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 262230Z.//