** WTPN21 PGTW 202300 ***
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 202251Z JUN 06//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.7N 115.5W TO 14.9N 123.0W WITH-
IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 201800Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 116.0W.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.0N 116.0W,
APPROXIMATELY 740 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS, MEXICO.
RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD RADIAL DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 212300Z.//


** WTPN21 PHNC 202300 ***
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 202251Z JUN 06//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.7N 115.5W TO 14.9N 123.0W WITH-
IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 201800Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 116.0W.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.0N 116.0W,
APPROXIMATELY 740 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS, MEXICO.
RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD RADIAL DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 212300Z.//