** WTUS82 KTAE 120630 *** HLSTAE FLZ034-GMZ755-775-121400- TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 230 AM EDT MON JUN 12 2006 ...DISORGANIZED ALBERTO MOVING SLOWLY NORTH NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO STEINHATCHEE WHICH INCLUDES DIXIE COUNTY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF DIXIE COUNTY. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR DIXIE COUNTY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 AM EDT THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.7 WEST OR ABOUT 340 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. ALBERTO WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 45 MPH....WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMI CIRCLE OF ALBERTO AND EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES FROM THE CENTER. THE LOWEST CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. THE CENTER OF ALBERTO IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTHWEST FLORIDA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT THE WORST WEATHER WILL OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL CENTER. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN CASE THE WATCH GETS UPGRADED TO A WARNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WOULD PLACE DIXIE COUNTY ON THE WEAKER SIDE OF THE STORM...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE PATH OF ALBERTO. PLEASE FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AS OF SUNDAY NIGHT...TIDES WERE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE APALACHEE BAY COAST. EVEN THOUGH ALBERTO WILL LIKELY REMAIN A FAIRLY WEAK TROPICAL STORM...IT DOES NOT TAKE VERY HIGH WINDS TO CAUSE FLOODING ACROSS APALACHEE BAY DUE TO ITS SHALLOW WATER LEVELS. IN FACT...THE LATEST COMPUTER MODELS FORECAST A STORM TIDE OF 3 TO 5 FEET ALONG THE DIXIE COUNTY COAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHICH WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. RESIDENTS IN THE NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO PREVENT PROPERTY DAMAGE...AND KNOW WHERE TO GO SHOULD AN EVACUATION BE NEEDED. THE FORECAST HIGH TIDES AT THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER ENTRANCE ARE AT 656 AM EDT MONDAY...543 PM MONDAY...AND 737 AM TUESDAY. THE TIDES AT THE SUWANNEE RIVER ENTRANCE ARE WITHIN 15 MINUTES OF STEINHATCHEE. ...WIND IMPACTS... AS OF 1 AM EDT...THE WINDS WERE VERY LIGHT ACROSS DIXIE COUNTY. THEY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY TODAY...REACHING SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH LATER TONIGHT AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WHICH CAN CAUSE LARGE BRANCHES TO FALL...AS WELL AS A FEW TREES. SPORADIC...BRIEF POWER OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT THE OVERALL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY IS LOW. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK OF TORNADOES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH FLORIDA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BEFORE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE BY 7 AM EDT. $$ FOURNIER ** WTIN20 DEMS 120634 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 12-06-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTION CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING NORTH ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 23.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTUS82 KTAE 120519 *** HLSTAE FLZ034-GMZ755-775-121330- TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 119 AM EDT MON JUN 12 2006 ...DISORGANIZED ALBERTO MOVING SLOWLY NORTH NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO STEINHATCHEE WHICH INCLUDES DIXIE COUNTY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF DIXIE COUNTY. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR DIXIE COUNTY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT SUNDAY THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.7 WEST OR ABOUT 345 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. ALBERTO WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 45 MPH....WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF ALBERTO IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTHWEST FLORIDA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT THE WORST WEATHER WILL OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL CENTER. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN CASE THE WATCH GETS UPDGRADED TO A WARNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WOULD PLACE DIXIE COUNTY ON THE WEAKER SIDE OF THE STORM...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE PATH OF ALBERTO. PLEASE FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND LAW ENFOREMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AS OF SUNDAY NIGHT...TIDES WERE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE APALCHEE BAY COAST. EVEN THOUGH ALBERTO WILL LIKELY REMAIN A FAIRLY WEAK TROPICAL STORM...IT DOES NOT TAKE VERY HIGH WINDS TO CAUSE FLOODING ACROSS APALACHEE BAY DUE TO ITS SHALLOW WATER LEVELS. IN FACT...THE LATEST COMPUTER MODELS FORECAST A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 5 FEET ALONG THE DIXIE COUNTY COAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHICH WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. RESIDENTS IN THE NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO PREVENT PROPERTY DAMAGE...AND KNOW WHERE TO GO SHOULD AN EVACUATION BE NEEDED. ...WIND IMPACTS... AS OF 1 AM EDT...THE WINDS WERE VERY LIGHT ACROSS DIXIE COUNTY. THEY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY TODAY...REACHING SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH LATER TONIGHT AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WHICH CAN CAUSE LARGE BRANCHES TO FALL...AS WELL AS A FEW TREES. SPORADIC...BRIEF POWER OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT THE OVERALL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY IS LOW. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE 1 TO INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSBILE. THIS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK OF TORNADOES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH FLORIDA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BEFORE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE BY 9 AM EDT. $$ FOURNIER ** WTNT31 KNHC 120539 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006 100 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 ...ALBERTO REMAINS DISORGANIZED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO STEINHATCHEE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 100 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.7 WEST OR ABOUT 340 MILES...550 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 385 MILES... 620 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA. ALBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...10 KM/HR ...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF ALBERTO AND EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM...FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 30 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH TUESDAY... WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. TIDE LEVELS ARE ALREADY RUNNING MORE THAN A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD TO APALACHICOLA. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST WITHIN AND POSSIBLY TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA. REPEATING THE 100 AM CDT POSITION...25.4 N...87.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 AM CDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTIN20 DEMS 120634 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 12-06-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTION CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING NORTH ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 23.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTNT21 KNHC 120835 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006 0900Z MON JUN 12 2006 AT 4 AM CDT...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ENGLEWOOD TO INDIAN PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO BONITA BEACH. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 87.2W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......200NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 250SE 0SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 87.2W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 87.4W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 27.1N 86.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 28.1N 85.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...175NE 125SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 29.5N 83.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...175NE 125SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 31.0N 81.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 35.0N 73.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 41.5N 64.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 46.5N 52.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N 87.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 120842 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006 400 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 ...ALBERTO STRENGTHENS...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED... AT 4 AM CDT...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ENGLEWOOD TO INDIAN PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO BONITA BEACH. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 400 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST OR ABOUT 275 MILES...445 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 320 MILES...515 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA. ALBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR ...AND A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM...TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE LARGE EXTENT OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MEANS THAT THESE WINDS WILL BE FELT ALONG THE COAST WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...CAN BE EXPECTED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...MAINLY ALONG AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF ALBERTO. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 400 AM CDT POSITION...26.2 N...87.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 700 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 AM CDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTUS82 KTAE 120519 *** HLSTAE FLZ034-GMZ755-775-121330- TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 119 AM EDT MON JUN 12 2006 ...DISORGANIZED ALBERTO MOVING SLOWLY NORTH NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO STEINHATCHEE WHICH INCLUDES DIXIE COUNTY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF DIXIE COUNTY. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR DIXIE COUNTY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT SUNDAY THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.7 WEST OR ABOUT 345 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. ALBERTO WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 45 MPH....WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF ALBERTO IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTHWEST FLORIDA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT THE WORST WEATHER WILL OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL CENTER. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN CASE THE WATCH GETS UPDGRADED TO A WARNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WOULD PLACE DIXIE COUNTY ON THE WEAKER SIDE OF THE STORM...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE PATH OF ALBERTO. PLEASE FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND LAW ENFOREMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AS OF SUNDAY NIGHT...TIDES WERE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE APALCHEE BAY COAST. EVEN THOUGH ALBERTO WILL LIKELY REMAIN A FAIRLY WEAK TROPICAL STORM...IT DOES NOT TAKE VERY HIGH WINDS TO CAUSE FLOODING ACROSS APALACHEE BAY DUE TO ITS SHALLOW WATER LEVELS. IN FACT...THE LATEST COMPUTER MODELS FORECAST A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 5 FEET ALONG THE DIXIE COUNTY COAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHICH WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. RESIDENTS IN THE NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO PREVENT PROPERTY DAMAGE...AND KNOW WHERE TO GO SHOULD AN EVACUATION BE NEEDED. ...WIND IMPACTS... AS OF 1 AM EDT...THE WINDS WERE VERY LIGHT ACROSS DIXIE COUNTY. THEY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY TODAY...REACHING SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH LATER TONIGHT AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WHICH CAN CAUSE LARGE BRANCHES TO FALL...AS WELL AS A FEW TREES. SPORADIC...BRIEF POWER OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT THE OVERALL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY IS LOW. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE 1 TO INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSBILE. THIS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK OF TORNADOES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH FLORIDA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BEFORE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE BY 9 AM EDT. $$ FOURNIER ** WTNT81 KNHC 120901 *** TCVAT1 ALBERTO WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006 348 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 .TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FLC037-065-123-129-120900- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1001.060612T0848Z-000000T0000Z/ 348 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 INDIAN-PASS-FL 29.68N 85.27W STEINHATCHEE-RIVER-FL 29.67N 83.40W $$ GMZ750-770-120900- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1001.060612T0848Z-000000T0000Z/ 348 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 INDIAN-PASS-FL 29.68N 85.27W STEINHATCHEE-RIVER-FL 29.67N 83.40W $$ FLC015-027-071-120900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 348 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W $$ GMZ856-876-120900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 348 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W $$ FLC017-029-053-057-075-081-101-103-115-120900- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1001.060612T0848Z-000000T0000Z/ 348 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 STEINHATCHEE-RIVER-FL 29.67N 83.40W ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W $$ GMZ755-775-830-850-853-870-873-120900- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1001.060612T0848Z-000000T0000Z/ 348 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 STEINHATCHEE-RIVER-FL 29.67N 83.40W ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W $$ ATTN...WFO...TAE...TBW... ** WTNT31 KNHC 120539 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006 100 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 ...ALBERTO REMAINS DISORGANIZED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO STEINHATCHEE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 100 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.7 WEST OR ABOUT 340 MILES...550 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 385 MILES... 620 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA. ALBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...10 KM/HR ...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF ALBERTO AND EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM...FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 30 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH TUESDAY... WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. TIDE LEVELS ARE ALREADY RUNNING MORE THAN A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD TO APALACHICOLA. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST WITHIN AND POSSIBLY TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA. REPEATING THE 100 AM CDT POSITION...25.4 N...87.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 AM CDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 120914 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006 500 AM EDT MON JUN 12 2006 ALTHOUGH THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT PASS THROUGH ALBERTO NEAR 05Z FOUND ONLY A FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A MINIMUM OF 1006 MB AND NO CLEAR CENTER...THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THEN. DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AND BUILT WESTWARD AGAINST THE SHEAR...AND THE LOW-CLOUD LINES IN THE NIGHT-VIS IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT A CENTER IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED JUST TO THE WEST OF THIS CONVECTION. A DROPSONDE ON THE EDGE OF THE CONVECTION REPORTED 40 KT AT THE SURFACE AT 06Z...AND THE PRESSURE AT BUOY 42003 HAS FALLEN TO 1002.9 MB. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KT. THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE SYSTEM IN ABOUT THREE HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 020/7. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF ALBERTO...WHICH IS STILL EMBEDDED IN A ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE UKMET AND NOGAPS BOTH DROP AN UPPER LOW INTO THE WESTERN GULF THAT BACKS THE FLOW JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK THAN THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED JUST A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND MOST CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE GFS...WHICH HAD BEEN INDICATING A REDEVELOPMENT OF THE CENTER TO THE NORTHEAST. NONE OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WILL DECREASE DRAMATICALLY...BUT IF THE UKMET AND NOGAPS ARE CORRECT IT WILL DECREASE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME FURTHER ORGANIZATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. THE LARGE EXTENT OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS DICTATES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AT THIS TIME. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0900Z 26.2N 87.2W 45 KT 12HR VT 12/1800Z 27.1N 86.7W 50 KT 24HR VT 13/0600Z 28.1N 85.6W 55 KT 36HR VT 13/1800Z 29.5N 83.7W 55 KT 48HR VT 14/0600Z 31.0N 81.5W 45 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 15/0600Z 35.0N 73.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 16/0600Z 41.5N 64.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 17/0600Z 46.5N 52.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 120921 *** TCVAT1 ALBERTO WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006 400 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 .TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FLC037-065-123-129-121500- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1001.060612T0900Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 INDIAN-PASS-FL 29.68N 85.27W STEINHATCHEE-RIVER-FL 29.67N 83.40W $$ GMZ750-770-121500- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1001.060612T0900Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 INDIAN-PASS-FL 29.68N 85.27W STEINHATCHEE-RIVER-FL 29.67N 83.40W $$ FLC015-027-071-121500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W $$ GMZ856-876-121500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W $$ FLC017-029-053-057-075-081-101-103-115-121500- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1001.060612T0900Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 STEINHATCHEE-RIVER-FL 29.67N 83.40W ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W $$ GMZ755-775-830-850-853-870-873-121500- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1001.060612T0900Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 STEINHATCHEE-RIVER-FL 29.67N 83.40W ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W $$ ATTN...WFO...TAE...TBW... ** WTCA41 TJSJ 120922 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ALBERTO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 9 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL012006 400 AM CDT LUNES 12 DE JUNIO DE 2006 ...ALBERTO SE INTENSIFICA...SE EMITEN AVISOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL... A LAS 4 AM CDT...0900 UTC...SE HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA DEL GOLFO DE FLORIDA DESDE ENGLEWOOD HASTA INDIAN PASS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE EL SUR DE ENGLEWOOD HASTA BONITA BEACH. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...REFIERASE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 400 AM CDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ALBERTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 26.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 87.2 OESTE O COMO 275 MILLAS...445 KILOMETROS...AL SUR-SUROESTE DE APALACHICOLA FLORIDA Y COMO A 320 MILLAS...515 KILOMETROS...AL SUROESTE DE CEDAR KEY FLORIDA. ALBERTO SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH... 13 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NORESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTANDO Y AHORA ESTAN EN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 230 MILLAS...370 KILOMETROS...AL NORESTE Y SURESTE DEL CENTRO. LA GRAN EXTENSION DE LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE ESTOS VIENTOS SE SENTIRAN A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA BIEN DELANTE DE LA LLEGADA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1001 MB...29.56 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 6 A 8 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...SE PUEDEN ESPERAR SOBRE GRAN PARTE DEL AREA BAJO AVISO. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS HASTA 10 PULGADAS...SON POSIBLES HASTA EL MARTES A TRAVES DE PARTES DEL CENTRO Y NORTE DE FLORIDA Y EL SURESTE DE GEORGIA... MAYORMENTE A LO LARGO Y A LA DERECHA DE LA TRAYECTORIA DE ALBERTO. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE EL OESTE-CENTRAL Y NOROESTE DE FLORIDA ESTA NOCHE. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 400 AM CDT...26.2 NORTE...87.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1001 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 700 AM CDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 1000 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 120924 *** TCVAT1 ALBERTO WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006 400 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 .TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FLC037-065-123-129-121500- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1001.060612T0900Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 INDIAN-PASS-FL 29.68N 85.27W STEINHATCHEE-RIVER-FL 29.67N 83.40W $$ GMZ750-770-121500- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1001.060612T0900Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 INDIAN-PASS-FL 29.68N 85.27W STEINHATCHEE-RIVER-FL 29.67N 83.40W $$ FLC015-027-071-121500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W $$ GMZ856-876-121500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W $$ FLC017-029-053-057-075-081-101-103-115-121500- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1001.060612T0900Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 STEINHATCHEE-RIVER-FL 29.67N 83.40W ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W $$ GMZ755-775-830-850-853-870-873-121500- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1001.060612T0900Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 STEINHATCHEE-RIVER-FL 29.67N 83.40W ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W $$ ATTN...WFO...TAE...TBW... ** WTIN20 DEMS 120634 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 12-06-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTION CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING NORTH ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 23.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTUS82 KTBW 121004 *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055-060>062-065-121530- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 600 AM EDT MON JUN 12 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO HEADED FOR THE SUNCOAST... ...NEW INFORMATION... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM ENGLEWOOD NORTH TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER AND AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NON COASTAL AND NON TIDAL LOCATIONS OF PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH... POLK...SUMTER...PASCO...HERNANDO...CITRUS AND LEVY COUNTIES. THE STORM SURGE JUST TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE ALBERTO MAKES LANDFALL COULD REACH 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL TIDE. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL AREAS OF SARASOTA...MANATEE...HILLSBOROUGH...PINELLAS...PASCO...HERNANDO... CITRUS AND LEVY COUNTIES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL AREAS OF LEE AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NON COASTAL AND NON TIDAL LOCATIONS OF PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...POLK...SUMTER... PASCO...HERNANDO...CITRUS AND LEVY COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LEE... CHARLOTTE...SARASOTA...DESOTO...HARDEE...HIGHLANDS...MANATEE... PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...POLK...PASCO...HERNANDO...CITRUS...LEVY AND SUMTER COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST...OR ABOUT 310 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA. ALBERTO WAS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...WINDS... BRIEF THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY AS THE RAIN BANDS FROM ALBERTO BLOW THROUGH. COASTAL AREAS COULD SEE SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BY LATE THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR INLAND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 4 BY TUESDAY MORNING. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... TIDES WILL BE 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TODAY. THE HIGH TIDE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH THE SURGE FROM ALBERTO COULD CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING FROM TAMPA BAY NORTH THROUGH CEDAR KEY. THE STORM SURGE JUST TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE ALBERTO MAKES LANDFALL COULD REACH 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL TIDE. ...INLAND FLOODING... TOTAL RAIN FALL THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE 4 TO 8 INCHES. RECENT DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW THE GROUND TO ABSORB A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL. HOWEVER...HEAVY BURSTS OF RAIN MAY CAUSE FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. ...TORNADOES... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO THROUGH TUESDAY. ...BEACH EROSION... SWELLS FROM ALBERTO WILL CAUSE BREAKING WAVES OF 4 TO 7 FEET THROUGH TODAY. ONSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH HIGH SURF AND MINOR BEACH EROSION EXPECTED. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE A THREAT THROUGH TUESDAY. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO IS STILL A RATHER DISORGANIZED STORM AND FUTURE FORECASTS MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE TIMING LOCATION. CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS. ...NEXT STATEMENT... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 1130 AM THIS MORNING OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. $$ PRC ** WTUS82 KTAE 121038 *** HLSTAE FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GMZ750-755-770-775-121530- TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 638 AM EDT MON JUN 12 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN GULF... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ENGLEWOOD TO INDIAN PASS... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND... ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR BAY AND COASTAL WALTON COUNTIES... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EAST FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR DIXIE...TAYLOR...JEFFERSON...WAKULLA...FRANKLIN...GULF COUNTIES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST OR ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. ALBERTO WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 50 MPH....WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMI CIRCLE OF ALBERTO AND EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1001MB...29.56 INCHES. THE CENTER OF ALBERTO IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTHWEST FLORIDA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT THE WORST WEATHER WILL OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL CENTER. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS ALONG THE BIG BEND COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WOULD PLACE MOST OF THE BIG BEND ON THE WEAKER SIDE OF THE STORM...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE PATH OF ALBERTO. PLEASE FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AS OF 6 AM EDT MONDAY...TIDES WERE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT OR SO ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE APALACHEE BAY COAST. EVEN THOUGH ALBERTO WILL LIKELY REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM...IT DOES NOT TAKE VERY HIGH WINDS TO CAUSE FLOODING ACROSS APALACHEE BAY DUE TO ITS SHALLOW WATER LEVELS. IN FACT...THE LATEST STORM SURGE MODELS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST A STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 6 FEET ALONG THE BIG BEND COAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. RESIDENTS IN THE NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO PREVENT PROPERTY DAMAGE...AND KNOW WHERE TO GO SHOULD AN EVACUATION BE NEEDED. THE FORECAST HIGH TIDES AT THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER ENTRANCE ARE AT 656 AM EDT TODAY...543 PM TODAY...AND 737 AM TUESDAY. THE HIGH TIDES AT SAINT MARKS ARE 406 AM TODAY...237 PM TODAY...AND 447 AM TUESDAY. THE HIGH TIDES AT APALACHICOLA ARE AT 807 AM EDT TODAY... 313 PM TODAY...AND 846 AM TUESDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... AS OF 6 AM EDT...THE WINDS WERE VERY LIGHT ACROSS THE WARNED COASTAL AREA OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. THEY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY TODAY...REACHING SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ALONG THE COAST...AND 20 TO 30 MPH LATER TONIGHT AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WHICH CAN CAUSE LARGE TREE BRANCHES TO FALL...AS WELL AS A FEW TREES. UNSECURED ITEMS LIKE PATIO FURNITURE AND TRASH CANS MAY BE BLOWN OVER OR DISPLACED. SPORADIC...BRIEF POWER OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. DRIVING LARGE PROFILE VEHICLES CAN BE DIFFICULT IN THESE CONDITIONS. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE BIG BEND...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FLOODING CAN BE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT...AND MANY TROPICAL STORM RELATED DEATHS HAVE OCCURRED WHEN MOTORISTS TRIED TO CROSS STANDING WATER AND GOT SWEPT AWAY. THIS HAPPENED IN 2001 IN TALLAHASSEE NEAR FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY...WHEN THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ALLISON CAUSED FLOODING RAINS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF TORNADOES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH FLORIDA AND PORTIONS OF THE BIG BEND LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE BY 11 AM EDT. $$ FOURNIER ** WTNT31 KNHC 121155 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006 700 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 ...ALBERTO HEADED FOR THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO COAST... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ENGLEWOOD TO INDIAN PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO BONITA BEACH. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 700 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST OR ABOUT 240 MILES...390 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 295 MILES...475 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA. ALBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR ...AND A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS APPROACHING THE CENTER OF ALBERTO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM...TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE LARGE EXTENT OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MEANS THAT THESE WINDS WILL BE FELT ALONG THE COAST WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...CAN BE EXPECTED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...MAINLY ALONG AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF ALBERTO. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 700 AM CDT POSITION...26.7 N...87.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 AM CDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$