** WTCA41 TJSJ 120001 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ALBERTO ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 7A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 700 PM CDT DOMINGO 11 DE JUNIO DE 2006 ...ALBERTO CONTINUA MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL NORTE SOBRE EL GOLFO DE MEXICO CENTRAL... ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE BONITA BEACH HASTA STEINHATCHEE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA... GENERALMETE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...REFIERASE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 7 PM CDT...0000Z...EL AMPLIO CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ALBERTO SE ESTIMABA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 87.8 OESTE O COMO 360 MILLAS...585 KILOMETROS...AL SUR SUROESTE DE APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. ALBERTO SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH...15 KILOMETROS POR HORA Y SE ESPERA GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KILOMETROS PR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUNAS FLUCTUACIONES EN INTENSIDAD SON POSIBLES DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAS FUERTES DE ESTA TORMENTA TROPICAL OCURREN BIEN LEJOS DEL CENTRO Y SE EXTIENDEN MAYORMENTE HACIA EL ESTE HASTA 230 MILLAS...370 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1004 MILIBARAS...29.65 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE ALBERTO PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 20 PULGADAS SOBRE LA MITAD OESTE DE CUBA...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS TOTALES DE HASTA 30 PULGADAS EN TERRENOS ALTOS. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS PELIGROSAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA HASTA EL MARTES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 700 PM CDT...25.1 NORTE... 87.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1004 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1000 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DE PRONOSTICOS DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTSR20 WSSS 111800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT21 KNHC 120230 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006 0300Z MON JUN 12 2006 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO STEINHATCHEE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 87.7W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......200NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 250SE 0SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 87.7W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 87.8W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 26.6N 87.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 27.9N 85.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 28.7N 84.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 30.1N 81.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 34.0N 75.0W...EXTRATROPICAL OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 40.0N 63.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 46.0N 52.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.3N 87.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 120236 *** TCVAT1 ALBERTO WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006 1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006 .TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FLC015-017-027-029-053-057-071-075-081-101-103-115-120900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006 STEINHATCHEE-RIVER-FL 29.67N 83.40W BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W $$ GMZ755-775-830-850-853-856-870-873-876-120900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006 STEINHATCHEE-RIVER-FL 29.67N 83.40W BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W $$ ATTN...WFO...TAE...TBW... ** WTNT31 KNHC 120245 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006 1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006 ...DISORGANIZED ALBERTO MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO STEINHATCHEE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.7 WEST OR ABOUT 345 MILES...555 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 385 MILES...620 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA. ALBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR ...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THIS TROPICAL STORM ARE WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER... AND EXTEND MAINLY EASTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND A NEARBY SHIP WAS 1004 MB ...29.65 INCHES. ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 30 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH TUESDAY... WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. TIDE LEVELS ARE ALREADY RUNNING MORE THAN A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD TO APALACHICOLA. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...25.3 N...87.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 AM CDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 120245 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006 1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006 ...DISORGANIZED ALBERTO MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO STEINHATCHEE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.7 WEST OR ABOUT 345 MILES...555 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 385 MILES...620 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA. ALBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR ...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THIS TROPICAL STORM ARE WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER... AND EXTEND MAINLY EASTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND A NEARBY SHIP WAS 1004 MB ...29.65 INCHES. ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 30 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH TUESDAY... WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. TIDE LEVELS ARE ALREADY RUNNING MORE THAN A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD TO APALACHICOLA. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...25.3 N...87.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 AM CDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 120257 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006 1100 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006 DATA FROM SATELLITES AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS EVENING INDICATE ALBERTO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN OVERALL STRUCTURE. SEVERAL SMALL-SCALE CIRCULATIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND A MEAN CENTER... AND THE ADVISORY POSITION IS THE MIDPOINT BETWEEN THOSE SWIRLS. THE ADVISORY POSITION IS TO THE WEST OF THE LAST RECON POSITION AT 12/0143Z... AND IS CLOSE TO THE CENTROID OF THE LARGE SURFACE PRESSURE ENVELOPE. THE 40-KT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE RECON AIRCRAFT MAY NOT HAVE SAMPLED STRONGER WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE FLIGHT TRACK WITHIN SOME OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION. UPPER-AIR DATA THIS EVENING INDICATE THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE PREVIOUSLY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS ERODED AND LIFTED NORTHWARD TO NORTHERN FLORIDA...WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE HAS ALSO SHIFTED NORTHWARD BUT HAS REMAINED INTACT ALL THE WAY WESTWARD TO EASTERN TEXAS. THIS...COUPLED WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...HAS MAINTAINED A MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR PATTERN ACROSS THE CYCLONE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. AFTER THAT...MOST OF THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL BECOME VERTICALLY ALIGNED FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND THAT SHOULD ACT TO TURN ALBERTO NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE GFDL ONCE AGAIN APPEARS TO BE OVERCOMPENSATING FOR THE VERTICAL SHEAR AS IT TAKES THE CYCLONE MORE NORTHWARD INTO GEORGIA... AS DOES THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE BY 36H. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND FOLLOWS THE GENERAL MID-LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW PATTERN AFTER 24 HOURS...WHICH KEEPS ALBERTO SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM AND IN THE DIVERGENT RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT. ONCE ALBERTO TURNS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO ABATE SOMEWHAT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IN THE 24-36H TIME FRAME...AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL... BUT NOT AS ROBUST AS THE GFDL MODEL. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0300Z 25.3N 87.7W 40 KT 12HR VT 12/1200Z 26.6N 87.2W 45 KT 24HR VT 13/0000Z 27.9N 85.9W 50 KT 36HR VT 13/1200Z 28.7N 84.2W 50 KT 48HR VT 14/0000Z 30.1N 81.7W 40 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 15/0000Z 34.0N 75.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 16/0000Z 40.0N 63.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 17/0000Z 46.0N 52.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 120257 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006 1100 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006 DATA FROM SATELLITES AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS EVENING INDICATE ALBERTO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN OVERALL STRUCTURE. SEVERAL SMALL-SCALE CIRCULATIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND A MEAN CENTER... AND THE ADVISORY POSITION IS THE MIDPOINT BETWEEN THOSE SWIRLS. THE ADVISORY POSITION IS TO THE WEST OF THE LAST RECON POSITION AT 12/0143Z... AND IS CLOSE TO THE CENTROID OF THE LARGE SURFACE PRESSURE ENVELOPE. THE 40-KT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE RECON AIRCRAFT MAY NOT HAVE SAMPLED STRONGER WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE FLIGHT TRACK WITHIN SOME OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION. UPPER-AIR DATA THIS EVENING INDICATE THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE PREVIOUSLY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS ERODED AND LIFTED NORTHWARD TO NORTHERN FLORIDA...WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE HAS ALSO SHIFTED NORTHWARD BUT HAS REMAINED INTACT ALL THE WAY WESTWARD TO EASTERN TEXAS. THIS...COUPLED WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...HAS MAINTAINED A MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR PATTERN ACROSS THE CYCLONE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. AFTER THAT...MOST OF THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL BECOME VERTICALLY ALIGNED FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND THAT SHOULD ACT TO TURN ALBERTO NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE GFDL ONCE AGAIN APPEARS TO BE OVERCOMPENSATING FOR THE VERTICAL SHEAR AS IT TAKES THE CYCLONE MORE NORTHWARD INTO GEORGIA... AS DOES THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE BY 36H. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND FOLLOWS THE GENERAL MID-LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW PATTERN AFTER 24 HOURS...WHICH KEEPS ALBERTO SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM AND IN THE DIVERGENT RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT. ONCE ALBERTO TURNS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO ABATE SOMEWHAT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IN THE 24-36H TIME FRAME...AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL... BUT NOT AS ROBUST AS THE GFDL MODEL. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0300Z 25.3N 87.7W 40 KT 12HR VT 12/1200Z 26.6N 87.2W 45 KT 24HR VT 13/0000Z 27.9N 85.9W 50 KT 36HR VT 13/1200Z 28.7N 84.2W 50 KT 48HR VT 14/0000Z 30.1N 81.7W 40 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 15/0000Z 34.0N 75.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 16/0000Z 40.0N 63.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 17/0000Z 46.0N 52.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 120302 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ALBERTO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 8 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 1000 PM CDT DOMINGO 11 DE JUNIO DE 2006 ...ALBERTO DESORGANIZADO CONTINUA MOVIENDOSE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL NORTE-NORESTE SOBRE EL GOLFO DE MEXICO CENTRAL... ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE BONITA BEACH HASTA STEINHATCHEE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA... GENERALMETE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...REFIERASE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 10 PM CDT...0300Z...EL AMPLIO CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ALBERTO SE ESTIMABA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 87.7 OESTE O COMO 345 MILLAS...555 KILOMETROS...AL SUR-SUROESTE DE APALACHICOLA FLORIDA Y COMO A 385 MILLAS...620 KILOMETROS...AL SURESTE DE CEDAR KEY FLORIDA. ALBERTO SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH...13 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KILOMETROS PR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUNAS FLUCTUACIONES EN INTENSIDAD SON POSIBLES DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAS FUERTES EN ESTA TORMENTA TROPICAL OCURREN BIEN LEJOS DEL CENTRO...Y SE EXTIENDEN MAYORMENTE HACIA EL ESTE HASTA 230 MILLAS...370 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA RECIENTEMENTE INFORMADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA Y UN BARCO EN LA VECINDAD FUE DE 1004 MB...29.65 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE ALBERTO PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 20 PULGADAS SOBRE LA MITAD OESTE DE CUBA...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS TOTALES DE HASTA 30 PULGADAS EN TERRENOS ALTOS. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS PELIGROSAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO. SE ESPERA QUE LA LLUVIA COMIENCE A DISMINUIR A TRAVES DEL OESTE DE CUBA ESTA NOCHE Y HASTA EL LUNES. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA HASTA EL MARTES...Y DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS POSIBLES SOBRE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA. LAS MAREJADAS ESTAN A UN POCO MAS DE UN PIE SOBRE LOS VALORES NORMALES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL AREA DE TAMPA BAY HACIA EL NORTE HASTA APALACHICOLA. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE HASTA 5 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES...PUEDEN ESPERARSE CERCA...AL ESTE Y AL SURESTE DEL LUGAR DONDE EL CENTRO ENTRE A TIERRA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1000 PM CDT...25.3 NORTE...87.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NORTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1004 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 100 AM CDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 4 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DE PRONOSTICOS DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTUS82 KTBW 120331 *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055-060>062-065-120930- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 1130 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO HEADED FOR THE SUNCOAST... ...NEW INFORMATION... RAINFALL TOTALS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS NOW EARLIER...WITH COASTAL LOCATIONS STARTING LATE MONDAY EVENING AND INLAND LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY MORNING. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL AREAS OF LEE... CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...SARASOTA...MANATEE...HILLSBOROUGH...PINELLAS... PASCO...HERNANDO...CITRUS AND LEVY COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NON COASTAL AND NON TIDAL LOCATIONS OF PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...POLK...SUMTER PASCO...HERNANDO...CITRUS AND LEVY COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LEE... CHARLOTTE...SARASOTA...DESOTO...HARDEE...HIGHLANDS...MANATEE... PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...POLK...PASCO...HERNANDO...CITRUS...LEVY AND SUMTER COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.7 WEST...OR ABOUT 370 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA. ALBERTO WAS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...WINDS... BRIEF THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE RAIN BANDS FROM ALBERTO BLOW THROUGH. COASTAL AREAS COULD SEE SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR INLAND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 4 BY MID TUESDAY MORNING. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... TIDES WILL BE 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH TIDE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH THE SURGE FROM ALBERTO COULD CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING FROM TAMPA BAY NORTH THROUGH CEDAR KEY. THE STORM SURGE JUST TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE ALBERTO MAKES LANDFALL COULD REACH 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL TIDE. ...INLAND FLOODING... TOTAL RAIN FALL THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 INCHES. RECENT DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW THE GROUND TO ABSORB A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL. HOWEVER...HEAVY BURSTS OF RAIN MAY CAUSE FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. ...TORNADOES... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO THROUGH TUESDAY. ...BEACH EROSION... SWELLS FROM ALBERTO WILL CAUSE BREAKING WAVES OF 4 TO 7 FEET THROUGH MONDAY. ONSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH HIGH SURF AND MINOR BEACH EROSION EXPECTED. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE A THREAT THROUGH TUESDAY. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO IS A DISORGANIZED STORM AND FUTURE FORECASTS MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE TIMING LOCATION. CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS. ...NEXT STATEMENT... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 530 AM THIS MORNING OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. $$ CLOSE/COLSON ** WTUS82 KTBW 120331 *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055-060>062-065-120930- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 1130 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO HEADED FOR THE SUNCOAST... ...NEW INFORMATION... RAINFALL TOTALS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS NOW EARLIER...WITH COASTAL LOCATIONS STARTING LATE MONDAY EVENING AND INLAND LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY MORNING. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL AREAS OF LEE... CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...SARASOTA...MANATEE...HILLSBOROUGH...PINELLAS... PASCO...HERNANDO...CITRUS AND LEVY COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NON COASTAL AND NON TIDAL LOCATIONS OF PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...POLK...SUMTER PASCO...HERNANDO...CITRUS AND LEVY COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LEE... CHARLOTTE...SARASOTA...DESOTO...HARDEE...HIGHLANDS...MANATEE... PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...POLK...PASCO...HERNANDO...CITRUS...LEVY AND SUMTER COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.7 WEST...OR ABOUT 370 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA. ALBERTO WAS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...WINDS... BRIEF THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE RAIN BANDS FROM ALBERTO BLOW THROUGH. COASTAL AREAS COULD SEE SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR INLAND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 4 BY MID TUESDAY MORNING. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... TIDES WILL BE 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH TIDE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH THE SURGE FROM ALBERTO COULD CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING FROM TAMPA BAY NORTH THROUGH CEDAR KEY. THE STORM SURGE JUST TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE ALBERTO MAKES LANDFALL COULD REACH 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL TIDE. ...INLAND FLOODING... TOTAL RAIN FALL THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 INCHES. RECENT DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW THE GROUND TO ABSORB A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL. HOWEVER...HEAVY BURSTS OF RAIN MAY CAUSE FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. ...TORNADOES... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO THROUGH TUESDAY. ...BEACH EROSION... SWELLS FROM ALBERTO WILL CAUSE BREAKING WAVES OF 4 TO 7 FEET THROUGH MONDAY. ONSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH HIGH SURF AND MINOR BEACH EROSION EXPECTED. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE A THREAT THROUGH TUESDAY. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO IS A DISORGANIZED STORM AND FUTURE FORECASTS MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE TIMING LOCATION. CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS. ...NEXT STATEMENT... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 530 AM THIS MORNING OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. $$ CLOSE/COLSON ** WTUS82 KTAE 120519 *** HLSTAE FLZ034-GMZ755-775-121330- TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 119 AM EDT MON JUN 12 2006 ...DISORGANIZED ALBERTO MOVING SLOWLY NORTH NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO STEINHATCHEE WHICH INCLUDES DIXIE COUNTY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF DIXIE COUNTY. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR DIXIE COUNTY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT SUNDAY THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.7 WEST OR ABOUT 345 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. ALBERTO WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 45 MPH....WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF ALBERTO IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTHWEST FLORIDA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT THE WORST WEATHER WILL OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL CENTER. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN CASE THE WATCH GETS UPDGRADED TO A WARNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WOULD PLACE DIXIE COUNTY ON THE WEAKER SIDE OF THE STORM...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE PATH OF ALBERTO. PLEASE FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND LAW ENFOREMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AS OF SUNDAY NIGHT...TIDES WERE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE APALCHEE BAY COAST. EVEN THOUGH ALBERTO WILL LIKELY REMAIN A FAIRLY WEAK TROPICAL STORM...IT DOES NOT TAKE VERY HIGH WINDS TO CAUSE FLOODING ACROSS APALACHEE BAY DUE TO ITS SHALLOW WATER LEVELS. IN FACT...THE LATEST COMPUTER MODELS FORECAST A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 5 FEET ALONG THE DIXIE COUNTY COAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHICH WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. RESIDENTS IN THE NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO PREVENT PROPERTY DAMAGE...AND KNOW WHERE TO GO SHOULD AN EVACUATION BE NEEDED. ...WIND IMPACTS... AS OF 1 AM EDT...THE WINDS WERE VERY LIGHT ACROSS DIXIE COUNTY. THEY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY TODAY...REACHING SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH LATER TONIGHT AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WHICH CAN CAUSE LARGE BRANCHES TO FALL...AS WELL AS A FEW TREES. SPORADIC...BRIEF POWER OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT THE OVERALL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY IS LOW. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE 1 TO INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSBILE. THIS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK OF TORNADOES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH FLORIDA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BEFORE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE BY 9 AM EDT. $$ FOURNIER ** WTNT80 EGRR 120529 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 12.06.2006 TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ANALYSED POSITION : 25.3N 87.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL012006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 12.06.2006 25.3N 87.1W WEAK 12UTC 12.06.2006 27.1N 86.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.06.2006 27.3N 85.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.06.2006 28.4N 85.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 14.06.2006 29.8N 84.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.06.2006 31.9N 83.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 15.06.2006 33.4N 79.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.06.2006 EXTRA-TROPICAL THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 120529 ** WTUS82 KTBW 120331 *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055-060>062-065-120930- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 1130 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO HEADED FOR THE SUNCOAST... ...NEW INFORMATION... RAINFALL TOTALS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS NOW EARLIER...WITH COASTAL LOCATIONS STARTING LATE MONDAY EVENING AND INLAND LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY MORNING. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL AREAS OF LEE... CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...SARASOTA...MANATEE...HILLSBOROUGH...PINELLAS... PASCO...HERNANDO...CITRUS AND LEVY COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NON COASTAL AND NON TIDAL LOCATIONS OF PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...POLK...SUMTER PASCO...HERNANDO...CITRUS AND LEVY COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LEE... CHARLOTTE...SARASOTA...DESOTO...HARDEE...HIGHLANDS...MANATEE... PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...POLK...PASCO...HERNANDO...CITRUS...LEVY AND SUMTER COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.7 WEST...OR ABOUT 370 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA. ALBERTO WAS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...WINDS... BRIEF THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE RAIN BANDS FROM ALBERTO BLOW THROUGH. COASTAL AREAS COULD SEE SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR INLAND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 4 BY MID TUESDAY MORNING. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... TIDES WILL BE 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH TIDE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH THE SURGE FROM ALBERTO COULD CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING FROM TAMPA BAY NORTH THROUGH CEDAR KEY. THE STORM SURGE JUST TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE ALBERTO MAKES LANDFALL COULD REACH 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL TIDE. ...INLAND FLOODING... TOTAL RAIN FALL THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 INCHES. RECENT DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW THE GROUND TO ABSORB A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL. HOWEVER...HEAVY BURSTS OF RAIN MAY CAUSE FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. ...TORNADOES... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO THROUGH TUESDAY. ...BEACH EROSION... SWELLS FROM ALBERTO WILL CAUSE BREAKING WAVES OF 4 TO 7 FEET THROUGH MONDAY. ONSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH HIGH SURF AND MINOR BEACH EROSION EXPECTED. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE A THREAT THROUGH TUESDAY. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO IS A DISORGANIZED STORM AND FUTURE FORECASTS MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE TIMING LOCATION. CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS. ...NEXT STATEMENT... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 530 AM THIS MORNING OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. $$ CLOSE/COLSON ** WTUS82 KTAE 120539 CCA *** HLSTAE FLZ034-GMZ755-775-121330- TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 119 AM EDT MON JUN 12 2006 ...DISORGANIZED ALBERTO MOVING SLOWLY NORTH NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO STEINHATCHEE WHICH INCLUDES DIXIE COUNTY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF DIXIE COUNTY. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR DIXIE COUNTY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT SUNDAY THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.7 WEST OR ABOUT 345 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. ALBERTO WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 45 MPH....WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF ALBERTO IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTHWEST FLORIDA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT THE WORST WEATHER WILL OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL CENTER. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN CASE THE WATCH GETS UPGRADED TO A WARNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WOULD PLACE DIXIE COUNTY ON THE WEAKER SIDE OF THE STORM...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE PATH OF ALBERTO. PLEASE FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AS OF SUNDAY NIGHT...TIDES WERE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE APALACHEE BAY COAST. EVEN THOUGH ALBERTO WILL LIKELY REMAIN A FAIRLY WEAK TROPICAL STORM...IT DOES NOT TAKE VERY HIGH WINDS TO CAUSE FLOODING ACROSS APALACHEE BAY DUE TO ITS SHALLOW WATER LEVELS. IN FACT...THE LATEST COMPUTER MODELS FORECAST A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 5 FEET ALONG THE DIXIE COUNTY COAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHICH WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. RESIDENTS IN THE NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO PREVENT PROPERTY DAMAGE...AND KNOW WHERE TO GO SHOULD AN EVACUATION BE NEEDED. ...WIND IMPACTS... AS OF 1 AM EDT...THE WINDS WERE VERY LIGHT ACROSS DIXIE COUNTY. THEY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY TODAY...REACHING SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH LATER TONIGHT AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WHICH CAN CAUSE LARGE BRANCHES TO FALL...AS WELL AS A FEW TREES. SPORADIC...BRIEF POWER OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT THE OVERALL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY IS LOW. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK OF TORNADOES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH FLORIDA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BEFORE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE BY 9 AM EDT. $$ FOURNIER ** WTNT31 KNHC 120539 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006 100 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 ...ALBERTO REMAINS DISORGANIZED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO STEINHATCHEE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 100 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.7 WEST OR ABOUT 340 MILES...550 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 385 MILES... 620 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA. ALBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...10 KM/HR ...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF ALBERTO AND EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM...FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 30 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH TUESDAY... WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. TIDE LEVELS ARE ALREADY RUNNING MORE THAN A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD TO APALACHICOLA. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST WITHIN AND POSSIBLY TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA. REPEATING THE 100 AM CDT POSITION...25.4 N...87.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 AM CDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 120559 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ALBERTO ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 8A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL012006 100 AM CDT LUNES 12 DE JUNIO DE 2006 ...ALBERTO PERMANECE DESORGANIZADO SOBRE EL CENTRO DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO... ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE BONITA BEACH HASTA STEINHATCHEE. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...REFIERASE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LA 100 AM CDT...0600Z...EL AMPLIO CENTRO DE CIRCULACION DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ALBERTO FUE ESTIMADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 87.7 OESTE O COMO 340 MILLAS...550 KILOMETROS...AL SUR-SUROESTE DE APALACHICOLA FLORIDA Y COMO A 385 MILLAS...620 KILOMETROS...AL SURESTE DE CEDAR KEY FLORIDA. ALBERTO SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH...10 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NORESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTAN CONFINADOS AL SEMICIRCULO DEL ESTE DE ALBERTO Y SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 230 MILLAS... 370 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA RECIENTEMENTE INFORMADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA FUE DE 1006 MB... 29.71 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE ALBERTO PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 20 PULGADAS SOBRE LA MITAD OESTE DE CUBA...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS TOTALES DE HASTA 30 PULGADAS EN TERRENOS MAS ALTOS. ESTAS LLUVIAS PUDIERAN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS PELIGROSAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO. SE ESPERA QUE LA LLUVIA COMIENCE A DISMINUIR A TRAVES DEL OESTE DE CUBA ESTA NOCHE. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA HASTA EL MARTES...CON POSIBLES 3 A 5 PULGADAS EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA. LOS NIVELES DE LA MAREA YA ESTAN A MAS DE UN PIE SOBRE LOS VALORES NORMALES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL AREA DE TAMPA BAY HACIA EL NORTE HASTA APALACHICOLA. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE HASTA 5 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA SE PUEDEN ESPERAR A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DE FLORIDA DENTRO Y POSIBLEMENTE AL NORTE DEL AREA DE VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LA 100 AM CDT...25.4 NORTE...87.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NORTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1006 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 400 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$