** WTSR20 WSSS 110600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT31 KNHC 111433 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006 1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES FIRST NAMED STORM OF THE 2006 SEASON... INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM. AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.1 WEST OR ABOUT 400 MILES...645 KM...WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 445 MILES...715 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. ALBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 30 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY. REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...23.9 N...88.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 PM CDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 111433 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006 1500Z SUN JUN 11 2006 INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 88.1W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 250SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 88.1W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 87.9W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.9N 88.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 26.0N 87.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 27.3N 85.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 28.5N 83.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 32.0N 77.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 39.0N 67.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 46.0N 54.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.9N 88.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 111438 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006 1100 AM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006 THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS MEASURED A 1400-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 51 KT IN A BAND OF STRONG WINDS WELL TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THERE WAS A 1200 UTC SHIP REPORT OF 33 KT IN THAT SAME AREA. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. HAVING SAID THAT...THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE STORM IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. ALTHOUGH THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER IS NOW FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISPLACE DEEP CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE CENTER. GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT THIS SHEAR TO INCREASE...SO NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SHIPS AND GFDL MODEL PREDICTIONS. THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE WEST THAN EARLIER PREDICTED...HOWEVER A MORE NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION MAY NOW BE DEVELOPING. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/8. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING AND A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE...IF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS ABLE TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST A PARTIALLY COHERENT VERTICAL STRUCTURE...IT WOULD RESPOND TO THIS STEERING REGIME BY TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...IF ALBERTO BECOMES EVEN MORE SEVERELY SHEARED... IT WOULD MORE LIKELY RESPOND TO SHALLOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW AND REMAIN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE WEAKENING. THIS LATTER SCENARIO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...ALBEIT SLOWER THAN...THE TRACK PREDICTION FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...GFDL... GFDN...U.K. MET...AND NOGAPS MODEL TRACKS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST LATER TODAY. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/1500Z 23.9N 88.1W 40 KT 12HR VT 12/0000Z 24.9N 88.7W 45 KT 24HR VT 12/1200Z 26.0N 87.8W 45 KT 36HR VT 13/0000Z 27.3N 85.8W 45 KT 48HR VT 13/1200Z 28.5N 83.5W 45 KT 72HR VT 14/1200Z 32.0N 77.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 15/1200Z 39.0N 67.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 16/1200Z 46.0N 54.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 111450 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ALBERTO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 6 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 1000 AM CDT DOMINGO 11 DE JUNIO DE 2006 ...DEPRESION SE CONVIERTE EN PRIMERA TORMENTA NOMBRADA DE LA TEMPORADA 2006... LOS INTERESES EN EL ESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...REFIERASE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. REPORTES DESDE UN AVION CAZAHURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICAN QUE LA DEPERSION TROPICAL SE HA FORTALECIDO CONVIRTIENDOSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL. A LAS 10 AM CDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL ALBERTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 23.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 88.1 OESTE O ALREDEDOR DE 400 MILLAS...540 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE DE CAYO HUESO EN LA FLORIDA Y ALREDEDOR DE 445 MILLAS...715 KILOMETROS...SUR SUROESTE DE APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. ALBERTO SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH Y SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO AL NORTE Y NORESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ES POSIBLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 175 MILLAS...280 KILOMETROS AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA POR EL AVION ES DE 1004 MILIBARAS...29.65 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE ALBERTO PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 20 PULGADAS SOBRE LA MITAD OESTE DE CUBA...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS TOTALES DE HASTA 30 PULGADAS EN TERRENOS ALTOS. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS MORTALES Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA HASTA EL LUNES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1000 AM CDT...23.9 NORTE... 88.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1004 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 4 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DE PRONOSTICOS DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTNT80 EGRR 111715 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 11.06.2006 TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ANALYSED POSITION : 24.2N 88.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL012006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 11.06.2006 24.2N 88.0W WEAK 00UTC 12.06.2006 23.8N 88.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.06.2006 25.8N 88.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.06.2006 25.5N 89.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.06.2006 25.2N 89.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.06.2006 25.6N 89.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.06.2006 26.9N 90.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.06.2006 29.1N 90.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.06.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 111715