** WTIN20 DEMS 110700 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 11-06-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) WEAK CONVECTION OVER ANDAMAN SEA AND ADJOINING BAY OF BENGAL(.) SUB TROPICAL RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA LIES ALONG LAT. 23.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTNT31 KNHC 110841 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006 400 AM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006 ...DEPRESSION REMAINS DISORGANIZED... INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 400 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST OR ABOUT 335 MILES...540 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 445 MILES...715 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...AND A MOTION TO THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN SQUALLS MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 30 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. REPEATING THE 400 AM CDT POSITION...23.5 N...87.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 AM CDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 110843 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006 500 AM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006 QUIKSCAT DATA...NIGHT-VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND A SHIP REPORT FROM WCY8453 INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS A LITTLE WEST OF OUR PREVIOUS TRACK...INDEED PROBABLY FARTHER WEST THAN THE CURRENT ADVISORY POSITION...AND INCREASINGLY REMOVED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION. NEVERTHELESS...THE PULASKI SHOAL LIGHT CMAN STATION...NEAR THE DRY TORTUGAS...REPORTED A 10-MINUTE MEAN WIND OF 36 KT SHORTLY BEFORE 06Z IN A NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION THAT HAS SINCE DISSIPATED. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THERE ARE STILL A FEW SPOTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AROUND...BUT I AM LOATH TO UPGRADE THE DEPRESSION GIVEN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND THE RECENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/8. THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THAT EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CYCLONE CENTER. THIS SHEARING FLOW LEADS TO TWO VERY DIFFERENT FORECAST SCENARIOS. THE GFS...NOGAPS...CANADIAN...AND GFDL MODELS MAINTAIN OR STRENGTHEN THE DEPRESSION AND LIFT IT NORTHEASTWARD WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IN 36-48 HOURS. THIS IS THE SCENARIO THAT THE LAST FEW OFFICIAL FORECASTS HAVE FOLLOWED... AND WHICH I WILL MAINTAIN FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE. HOWEVER...A SECOND SCENARIO IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY...IN WHICH THE DEPRESSION IS SEPARATED FROM ITS DEEP CONVECTION BY THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...LEAVING A WEAK VORTEX TO LINGER AND DEGENERATE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. IF DAYLIGHT IMAGERY AND/OR RECONNAISSANCE DATA CONFIRM THAT THE WESTERN CENTER IS THE ONLY CENTER...THEN SOME SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY LATER TODAY. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0900Z 23.5N 87.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 11/1800Z 24.7N 87.4W 35 KT 24HR VT 12/0600Z 26.0N 87.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 12/1800Z 27.5N 85.3W 40 KT 48HR VT 13/0600Z 29.2N 83.0W 40 KT 72HR VT 14/0600Z 32.0N 77.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 15/0600Z 39.0N 68.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 16/0600Z 46.0N 56.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 110843 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006 0900Z SUN JUN 11 2006 INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 87.0W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 87.0W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 86.8W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 24.7N 87.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 26.0N 87.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 27.5N 85.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 29.2N 83.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 32.0N 77.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 39.0N 68.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 46.0N 56.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 87.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 110853 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL UNO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 5 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 400 AM CDT DOMINGO 11 DE JUNIO DE 2006 ...DEPRESION TROPICAL PERMANECE DESORGANIZADA.. LOS INTERESES EN EL ESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...REFIERASE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 4 AM CDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL UNO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 23.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 87.0 OESTE O ALREDEDOR DE 335 MILLAS...540 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE SUROESTE DE CAYO HUESO EN LA FLORIDA Y ALREDEDOR DE 445 MILLAS...715 KILOMETROS...SUR SUROESTE DE APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH Y SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO AL NOROESTE O NORTE NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES EN TURBONADAS AL NORESTE DEL CENTRO. LA DEPRESION PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL MAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1003 MILIBARAS...29.62 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESION PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 20 PULGADAS SOBRE LA MITAD OESTE DE CUBA...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS TOTALES DE HASTA 30 PULGADAS EN TERRENOS ALTOS. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS DEVASTADORAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y LA PARTE OESTE DE FLORIDA HASTA EL LUNES. SON POSIBLES CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SOBRE EL NORESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 400 AM CDT...23.5 NORTE... 87.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1003 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 10 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DE PRONOSTICOS DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO