** WTSR20 WSSS 101800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT21 KNHC 110231 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006 0300Z SUN JUN 11 2006 INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 86.2W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 86.2W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 86.1W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.6N 86.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 26.5N 86.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 28.0N 85.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 25SW 25NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 29.5N 83.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 33.5N 77.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 39.5N 70.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 48.5N 57.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 86.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 110231 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006 1000 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM... INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST OR ABOUT 290 MILES...465 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 440 MILES...710 KM...SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH AND THIS TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY IN SQUALLS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION IS HEAVY RAINFALL. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 30 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS COULD CAUSE DEVASTATING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND WESTERN FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY. REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...23.4 N...86.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 AM CDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 110231 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006 1100 PM EDT SAT JUN 10 2006 DESPITE THE POOR SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND THE FACT THAT THE AIR FORCE PLANE CREW COULD NOT MAKE A CENTER FIX...THERE WAS A BAND OF 40 TO 45-KNOT WINDS AT FLIGHT LEVEL IN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. THESE WINDS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A FEW TRANSIENT CONVECTIVE BANDS. SINCE THEN...THERE HAS NOT BEEN AN IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION AND THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED. THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM IS KEPT AS A 30-KNOT DEPRESSION. THERE IS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST PATH OF THE CYCLONE. BECAUSE THE DEPRESSION HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION AND IS MOVING OVER A REGION OF WARM OCEAN...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THE DEPRESSION TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS AT ANY TIME. ANOTHER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO CHECK THE SYSTEM EARLY SUNDAY. THE OVERALL CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS...AND THIS MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. IN 24 HOURS OR SO...AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL LIKELY KICK THE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN FLORIDA. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE. THIS FORECAST SCENARIO SUGGESTS THAT A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA WEST COAST AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0300Z 23.4N 86.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 11/1200Z 24.6N 86.6W 35 KT 24HR VT 12/0000Z 26.5N 86.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 12/1200Z 28.0N 85.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 13/0000Z 29.5N 83.0W 35 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 14/0000Z 33.5N 77.0W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 15/0000Z 39.5N 70.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 16/0000Z 48.5N 57.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 110247 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL UNO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 4 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 1000 PM CDT SABADO 10 DE JUNIO DE 2006 ...DEPRESION TROPICAL SOBRE EL ESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO...SE PRONOSTICA QUE SE CONVIERTA EN TORMENTA TROPICAL... LOS INTERESES EN EL ESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...REFIERASE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 10 PM CDT...0300Z...EL POBREMENTE DEFINIDO CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL UNO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 23.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 86.2 OESTE O COMO A 290 MILLAS...465 KM...AL OESTE SUROESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA Y COMO A 440 MILLAS...710 KM...AL SUR DE APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTA TRAYECTORIA CONTINUE HASTA EL DOMINGO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES EN TURBONADAS AL NORTE Y AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA DEPRESION PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL EL DOMINGO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1003 MILIBARAS...29.62 PULGADAS. EN ESTOS MOMENTOS...LA AMENAZA PRINCIPAL DE ESTA DEPRESION ES LA LLUVIA FUERTE. SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESION PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 20 PULGADAS SOBRE LA MITAD OESTE DE CUBA...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS TOTALES DE HASTA 30 PULGADAS EN TERRENOS ALTOS. ESTO PODRIA CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS DEVASTADORAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LA PORCION NORESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN. TAMBIEN EXISTE EL POTENCIAL DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA SOBRE FLORIDA KEYS Y LA PARTE OESTE DE FLORIDA HASTA EL LUNES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1000 PM CDT...23.4 NORTE... 86.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1003 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 4 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DE PRONOSTICOS DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTNT80 EGRR 110534 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 11.06.2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ANALYSED POSITION : 23.4N 85.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL012006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 11.06.2006 23.4N 85.4W WEAK 12UTC 11.06.2006 25.0N 87.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.06.2006 26.0N 87.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.06.2006 27.1N 87.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.06.2006 26.8N 88.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.06.2006 26.8N 88.3N WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.06.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 8.8N 123.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 11.06.2006 8.8N 123.5W WEAK 00UTC 12.06.2006 7.6N 127.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.06.2006 7.7N 128.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.06.2006 8.0N 129.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.06.2006 8.1N 130.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.06.2006 8.4N 132.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.06.2006 9.2N 133.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.06.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 110534