** WTCA41 TJSJ 101808 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL UNO ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 2A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 1 PM CDT SABADO 10 DE JUNIO DE 2006 ...DEPRESION ARROJANDO FUERTES LLUVIAS EN CUBA OCCIDENTAL... ...LAS PRIMERAS BANDAS DE LLUVIA SOBRE EL EXTREMO SUR DE LA FLORIDA... SE RECOMIENDAN AVISOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE PINAR DEL RIO E ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. LOS DIVERSOS INTERESES EN EL ORIENTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN SEGUIR EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 1 PM CDT...1800Z...EL CENTRO POBREMENTE DEFINIDO DE DEPRESION TROPICAL UNO SE ESTIMABA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 85.6 OESTE O COMO A 45 MILLAS...75 KM...AL OESTE DE CABO SAN ANTONIO EN EL EXTREMO OESTE DE CUBA. LA DEPRESION SE MUEVE HACIA EL NOR NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH...14 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA CONTINUE EN ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTO DEBER LLEVAR AL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION AL EXTREMO SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO ESTA TARDE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y ES POSIBLE QUE LA DEPRESION SE CONVIERTA EN TORMENTA TROPICAL MAS TARDE HOY O ESTANOCHE. UN AVION DE CAZAHURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA ESTA EN RUTA PARA INVESTIGAR LA DEPRESION. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1003 MILIBARAS...29.62 PULGADAS. EN ESTOS MOMENTOS...LA AMENAZA PRINCIPAL DE ALBERGA ESTA DEPRESION SON SUS FUERTES LLUVIAS. SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESION PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES DE 10 A 20 PULGADAS SOBRE LA MITAD OESTE DE CUBA...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 30 PULGADAS EN TERRENOS ALTOS. ESTO PODRIA CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS DEVASTADORAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO. LLUVIAS ADICIONALES DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LA PORCION NORESTE DE LA PENISULA DEL YUCATAN. TAMBIEN EXISTE EL POTENCIAL PARA FUERTES LLUVIAS DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS POSIBLES EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...Y EL OESTE DE LA FLORIDA...COMENZANDO DESDE EL DOMINGO Y EXTENDIENDOSE AL LUNES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1 PM CDT...21.7 NORTE... 85.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NOR NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1003 MB. EL PROXIMO BOLETIN SERA EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 4 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTNT21 KNHC 102046 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006 2100Z SAT JUN 10 2006 INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 85.7W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 85.7W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 85.5W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 23.2N 86.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 25.0N 86.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 26.5N 86.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 28.1N 84.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 31.5N 79.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 37.5N 71.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 47.5N 60.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 85.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 102047 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006 400 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006 ...POORLY-ORGANIZED DEPRESSION PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS IN WESTERN CUBA... ...AIR FORCE PLANE STILL INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM... INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE ELONGATED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.7 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES...85 KM...WEST OF CABO SAN ANTONIO ON THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. THE DEPRESSION HAS SLOWED DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AND IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. A SLIGHTLY FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO RESUME DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION IS HEAVY RAINFALL. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 30 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS COULD CAUSE DEVASTATING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND WESTERN FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY. REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...21.8 N...85.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 PM CDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 102059 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006 500 PM EDT SAT JUN 10 2006 THE DEPRESSION IS STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN A SINGLE COHERENT SURFACE CIRCULATION. A SERIES OF SMALL VORTICES HAVE ALL DAY BEEN ROTATING ABOUT THE MEAN CENTER OF THE BROADER CIRCULATION THAT IS EXTREMELY ELONGATED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. EVEN GIVEN DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE THAT IS STILL INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM... WHERE TO SPECIFY A CIRCULATION CENTER IS VERY CHALLENGING. RECON FOUND A WIND SHIFT AND A BROAD PRESSURE MINIMUM IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AT ABOUT 18Z... BUT THAT DID NOT QUALIFY AS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF A VORTEX. THE AIRCRAFT IS INVESTIGATING OTHER PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION TO HELP DETERMINE WHERE THE CENTER IS LOCATED. FOR NOW I HAVE PLACED THE ADVISORY POSITION AT ABOUT THE CENTROID OF THE BROAD CLOUD CIRCULATION SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY... WHICH RESULTS IN A NET MOTION OF ABOUT 5 KT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. IN THE BIGGER PICTURE... MOST OF THE CONVECTION REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE ELONGATED CENTER. IN ADDITION TO THE INTERNAL DISORGANIZATION... THE DEPRESSION IS BATTLING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR IN BETWEEN A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN... AND DRY AIR OVER THE GULF THAT IMPINGING ON WESTERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND THE AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGEST 30 KT REMAINS A GOOD INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST ARE BOTH HIGHLY UNCERTAIN... DUE TO THE CURRENT STATE OF THE SYSTEM AND SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT THROUGHOUT ITS STAY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WILL TURN NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND CROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA... THEY DISAGREE GREATLY ON THE TIMING. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN BUT OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO BE CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS... OR BASICALLY AN AVERAGE OF THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST PEAKS AT 45 KT OVER THE GULF... LESS THAN IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES... TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT POOR ORGANIZATION AND EXPECTED INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS STILL EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/2100Z 21.8N 85.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 11/0600Z 23.2N 86.3W 35 KT 24HR VT 11/1800Z 25.0N 86.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 12/0600Z 26.5N 86.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 12/1800Z 28.1N 84.1W 45 KT 72HR VT 13/1800Z 31.5N 79.5W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 14/1800Z 37.5N 71.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 15/1800Z 47.5N 60.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 102100 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL UNO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 3 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT SABADO 10 DE JUNIO DE 2006 ...DEPRESION TROPICAL POBREMENTE ORGANIZADA PRODUCIENDO LLUVIAS FUERTES EN EL OESTE DE CUBA... ...AVION DE LA FUERZA AREA AUN INVESTIGANDO EL SISTEMA... LOS INTERESES EN EL ESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...REFIERASE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 4 PM CDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO ALARGADO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL UNO SE ESTIMABA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 85.7 OESTE O COMO A 50 MILLAS...85 KM...AL OESTE DE CABO SAN ANTONIO EN EL EXTREMO OESTE DE CUBA. LA DEPRESION HA SISMINUIDO SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION ESTA TARDE Y SE ESTIMA QUE SE MUEVE HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH. UN MOVIMIENTO UN POCO MAS RAPIDO HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE SE ESPERA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS HORAS. ESTE MOVIMIENTO TRAERA EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION HACIA EL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO TARDE ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y ES POSIBLE QUE LA DEPRESION SE CONVIERTA EN TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA NOCHE O MANANA. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1004 MILIBARAS...29.65 PULGADAS. EN ESTOS MOMENTOS...LA AMENAZA PRINCIPAL DE ESTA DEPRESION SON SUS FUERTES LLUVIAS. SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESION PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA 10 A 20 PULGADAS SOBRE LA MITAD OESTE DE CUBA...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 30 PULGADAS EN TERRENOS ALTOS. ESTO PODRIA CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS DEVASTADORAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO. LLUVIAS ADICIONALES DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LA PORCION NORESTE DE LA PENISULA DEL YUCATAN. TAMBIEN EXISTE EL POTENCIAL PARA FUERTES LLUVIAS DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...Y EL OESTE DE LA FLORIDA HASTA EL LUNES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 4 PM CDT...21.8 NORTE... 85.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1004 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1000 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DE PRONOSTICOS DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO