** WTSR20 WSSS 100600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT31 KNHC 101246 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006 800 AM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006 ...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE 2006 SEASON FORMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE RECOMMENDED FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND ISLE OF YOUTH. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM CDT...1300Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES... 80 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN ANTONIO ON THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN COASTS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE DEPRESSION IS HEAVY RAINFALL. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CUBA... WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 30 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS COULD CAUSE DEVASTATING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS...WESTERN FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. REPEATING THE 800 AM CDT POSITION...21.1 N...85.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 AM CDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 101247 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006 1300Z SAT JUN 10 2006 TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE RECOMMENDED FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 85.3W AT 10/1300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 85.3W AT 10/1300Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 85.0W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 22.0N 85.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 23.9N 86.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 25.6N 86.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 25SW 25NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 27.2N 86.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 29.5N 82.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 34.0N 77.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 42.0N 67.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 85.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 101253 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006 800 AM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND RADAR DATA FROM WESTERN CUBA INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS ORGANIZED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS PARTLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF A LARGE CONVECTIVE AREA WITH TOPS TO -85C. SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW AT LEAST TWO SMALL-SCALE VORTICITY CENTERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER CIRCULATION...WITH THE ADVISORY POSITION BEING THAT OF THE OVERALL MEAN CENTER. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 340/10. THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE EAST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE SHORT TERM...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STEER THE DEPRESSION GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A COL AREA BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW...A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS SEVERAL POSSIBLE SCENARIOS. THE GFS AND GFDL RECURVE THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE TROUGH...WHILE THE CANADIAN AND STALLS THE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF MODELS SPLIT THE DEPRESSION INTO MULTIPLE LOWS...WHILE THE UKMET TURNS IT WESTWARD TOWARD TEXAS. THE TRACK FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO AND BRING THE CENTER ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN ABOUT 72 HR. HOWEVER...THERE IS A GREATER THAN NORMAL AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES BETWEEN THE U. S. TROUGH AND A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE INTENSITY TO REACH 50 KT BEFORE LANDFALL IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL MODEL. IF THE CYCLONE FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK...INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD CAUSE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/1300Z 21.1N 85.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 10/1800Z 22.0N 85.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 11/0600Z 23.9N 86.7W 40 KT 36HR VT 11/1800Z 25.6N 86.9W 45 KT 48HR VT 12/0600Z 27.2N 86.1W 50 KT 72HR VT 13/0600Z 29.5N 82.5W 50 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 14/0600Z 34.0N 77.0W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 15/0600Z 42.0N 67.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 101312 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006 800 AM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006 ...CORRECTED LAST SENTENCE OF RAINFALL STATEMENT... ...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE 2006 SEASON FORMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE RECOMMENDED FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND ISLE OF YOUTH. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM CDT...1300Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES... 80 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN ANTONIO ON THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN COASTS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE DEPRESSION IS HEAVY RAINFALL. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CUBA... WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 30 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS COULD CAUSE DEVASTATING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND WESTERN FLORIDA FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. REPEATING THE 800 AM CDT POSITION...21.1 N...85.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 AM CDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 101332 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL UNO ADVERTENCIA ESPECIAL NUMERO 1 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 AM CDT SABADO 10 DE JUNIO DE 2006 ...SE FORMA LA PRIMERA DEPRESION DE LA TEMPORADA 2006 EN EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE... SE RECOMIENDAN AVISOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE PINAR DEL RIO E ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. LOS DIVERSOS INTERESES EN EL ORIENTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN SEGUIR EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 8 AM CDT...1300Z...EL AMPLIO CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL UNO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 85.3 OESTE O COMO A 50 MILLAS...80 KM...AL SUR-SUROESTE DE CABO SAN ANTONIO EN EL EXTREMO OESTE DE CUBA. LA DEPRESION SE MUEVE HACIA EL NOR NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH...19 KILOMETROS POR HORA...YSE ESPERA CONTINUE EN ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTO LLEVARIA AL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION A TRAVES DEL CANAL DEL YUCATAN Y ENTRANDO AL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DURANTE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y ES POSIBLE QUE LA DEPRESION SE CONVIERTA EN TORMENTA TROPICAL MAS TARDE DURANTE EL DIA DE HOY. UN AVION DE CAZAHURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA ESTA PAUTADO A INVESTIGAR LA DEPRESION HOY. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1003 MILIBARAS...29.65 PULGADAS. MAREAS CICLONICAS DE 2 A 4 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES DE LAS MAREAS NORMALES SON POSIBLES EN LAS COSTAS SURENAS DE CUBA OCCIDENTAL Y LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. EN ESTOS MOMENTOS...LA AMENAZA PRINCIPAL DE ALBERGA ESTA DEPRESION SON SUS FUERTES LLUVIAS. SE ESPERA QU LA DEPRESION PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES DE 10 A 20 PULGADAS SOBRE LA MITAD OESTE DE CUBA...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 30 PULGADAS EN TERRENOS ALTOS. ESTO PODRIA CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS DEVASTADORAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO. ACUMULACIONES DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN LAS ISLAS CAYMAN...CON 3 A 5 PULGADAS SOBRE LA PORCION NORESTE DE LA PENISULA DEL YUCATAN. TAMBIEN EXISTE EL POTENCIAL PARA FUERTES LLUVIAS DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS POSIBLES EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...Y EL OESTE DE LA FLORIDA...COMENZANDO DESDE EL DOMINGO Y EXTENDIENDOSE AL LUNES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 AM CDT...21.1 NORTE... 85.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NOR NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1003 MB. EL PROXIMO BOLETIN SERA EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 10 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTNT31 KNHC 101444 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006 1000 AM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006 ...DEPRESSION POORLY ORGANIZED BUT PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL... TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE RECOMMENDED FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.6 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES... 75 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN ANTONIO ON THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH... 19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE DEPRESSION IS HEAVY RAINFALL. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 30 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS COULD CAUSE DEVASTATING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND HAS REPORTED 22.72 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS... AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND WESTERN FLORIDA FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...21.5 N...85.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 PM CDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 101445 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006 1500Z SAT JUN 10 2006 TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE RECOMMENDED FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 85.6W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 85.6W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 85.3W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 22.9N 86.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.7N 86.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 26.5N 86.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 27.8N 85.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 31.0N 81.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 36.5N 74.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 45.0N 63.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 85.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 101457 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL UNO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 2 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT SABADO 10 DE JUNIO DE 2006 ...DEPRESION POBREMENTE ORGANIZADO PERO PRODUCIENDO FUERTES LLUVIAS... SE RECOMIENDAN AVISOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE PINAR DEL RIO E ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. LOS DIVERSOS INTERESES EN EL ORIENTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN SEGUIR EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 10 AM CDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO POBREMENTE DEFINIDO DE DEPRESION TROPICAL UNO SE ESTIMABA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 85.6 OESTE O COMO A 45 MILLAS...75 KM...AL SUR-SUROESTE DE CABO SAN ANTONIO EN EL EXTREMO OESTE DE CUBA. LA DEPRESION SE MUEVE HACIA EL NOR NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA CONTINUE EN ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTO DEBER LLEVAR AL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION AL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DURANTE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y ES POSIBLE QUE LA DEPRESION SE CONVIERTA EN TORMENTA TROPICAL MAS TARDE DURANTE EL DIA DE HOY. UN AVION DE CAZAHURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA ESTA PAUTADO A INVESTIGAR LA DEPRESION ESTA TARDE. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1003 MILIBARAS...29.65 PULGADAS. EN ESTOS MOMENTOS...LA AMENAZA PRINCIPAL DE ALBERGA ESTA DEPRESION SON SUS FUERTES LLUVIAS. SE ESPERA QU LA DEPRESION PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES DE 10 A 20 PULGADAS SOBRE LA MITAD OESTE DE CUBA...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 30 PULGADAS EN TERRENOS ALTOS. ESTO PODRIA CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS DEVASTADORAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO. LA ISLA GRAND CAYMAN REPORTO 22.72 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA DURANTE LAS PASADAS 24 HORAS...LLUVIAS ADICIONALES DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LA PORCION NORESTE DE LA PENISULA DEL YUCATAN. TAMBIEN EXISTE EL POTENCIAL PARA FUERTES LLUVIAS DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS POSIBLES EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...Y EL OESTE DE LA FLORIDA...COMENZANDO DESDE EL DOMINGO Y EXTENDIENDOSE AL LUNES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 10 AM CDT...21.5 NORTE... 85.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NOR NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1003 MB. UN BOLETIN INTERMEDIO SERA EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 100 PM CDT SEGUIDO POR EL PROXIMO BOLETIN COMPLETO A LAS 4 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTNT41 KNHC 101459 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006 1100 AM EDT SAT JUN 10 2006 THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT NEW DATA TO COME IN SINCE THE SPECIAL ADVISORY WAS A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT ABOUT 1115Z. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE FOR SYSTEMS WITH 30-35 KT WINDS... IT IS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT QUIKSCAT GREATLY OVERESTIMATED THE WIND SPEEDS IN RAIN-CONTAMINATED AREAS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN AREAS... THE RETRIEVED WINDS WERE AS STRONG AS 25-30 KT... SO HOLDING THE ESTIMATE FOR THE MAXIMUM WINDS AT 30 KT SEEMS REASONABLE. THE DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED WITH SEVERAL SMALL CIRCULATIONS ROTATING ABOUT A MEAN CENTER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STILL 340/10 BUT REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN. THE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED IN BETWEEN THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LACKING ANY NEW TRACK GUIDANCE... THE SCENARIOS PAINTED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY ALL REMAIN POSSIBILITIES. THE GFS AND GFDL RECURVE THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE CANADIAN MODELS STALLS THE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... AND THE UKMET TURNS IT WESTWARD TOWARD TEXAS. MEANWHILE THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF MODELS SPLIT THE DEPRESSION INTO MULTIPLE LOWS... WITH THE LARGER ONE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE LINES OF THE GFS AND GFDL TRACKS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL TREAT THIS AS A SINGLE RECURVING SYSTEM THAT SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. AS STATED PREVIOUSLY... THERE IS A GREATER THAN AVERAGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TRACK FORECAST. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST BY ALL THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO DOMINATE OVER THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK BEYOND ABOUT 36 HOURS. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE PLENTY OF WIND SHEAR TO LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM... AND INTENSIFICATION INTO A HURRICANE APPEARS UNLIKELY IN THAT ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST AGAIN PEAKS AT 50 KT BEFORE LANDFALL IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF... GENERALLY IN BETWEEN THE GFDL AND SHIPS SOLUTIONS. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/1500Z 21.5N 85.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 11/0000Z 22.9N 86.1W 40 KT 24HR VT 11/1200Z 24.7N 86.8W 45 KT 36HR VT 12/0000Z 26.5N 86.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 12/1200Z 27.8N 85.2W 50 KT 72HR VT 13/1200Z 31.0N 81.0W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 14/1200Z 36.5N 74.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 15/1200Z 45.0N 63.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTCA31 MHTG 101624Z *** MHTG SIGMET 3 VALID 101730/102330 MHTG- CENTROAMERICA FIR ACT AREA TS OBS SATELLITE IMAGERY BTN N20.0 W84.0 N16.5 W84.5 N16.5 W88.5 N20.0 W90.0 FRQ TS CB TPS FL500 MVNG N NC= ** WTNT80 EGRR 101732 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 10.06.2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ANALYSED POSITION : 20.7N 85.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL012006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 10.06.2006 20.7N 85.7W WEAK 00UTC 11.06.2006 22.4N 85.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.06.2006 24.2N 87.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.06.2006 25.5N 88.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.06.2006 26.9N 88.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.06.2006 27.7N 87.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.06.2006 28.7N 86.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.06.2006 29.1N 85.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.06.2006 29.5N 83.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.06.2006 30.8N 79.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 15.06.2006 32.5N 76.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.06.2006 33.9N 72.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.06.2006 37.2N 67.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 101732 ** WTNT31 KNHC 101756 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006 100 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006 ...DEPRESSION DUMPING HEAVY RAINFALL IN WESTERN CUBA... ...OUTER RAINBANDS OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA... TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE RECOMMENDED FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.6 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES... 75 KM...WEST OF CABO SAN ANTONIO ON THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH... 14 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE DEPRESSION IS HEAVY RAINFALL. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 30 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS COULD CAUSE DEVASTATING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND WESTERN FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY. REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...21.7 N...85.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 PM CDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$