** WTPZ32 KNHC 042029 *** TCPEP2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022006 200 PM PDT SUN JUN 04 2006 ...DEPRESSION PASSING JUST SOUTH OF ACAPULCO... ...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING... AND MUD SLIDES STILL A THREAT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.8 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES... 45 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 10 MPH... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION COULD MOVE INLAND BETWEEN ACAPULCO AND PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED... AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF NEAR 20 INCHES... CAN BE EXPECTED IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...16.5 N...99.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPZ22 KNHC 042030 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022006 2100Z SUN JUN 04 2006 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 99.8W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 99.8W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 100.1W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 16.3N 99.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 99.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPZ42 KNHC 042031 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022006 200 PM PDT SUN JUN 04 2006 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS ACCELERATED EAST OR EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OUT FROM UNDER THE EARLIER DEEP CONVECTION... THE LATTER OF WHICH HAS SINCE WEAKENED AND MOVED NORTHEASTWARD INTO MEXICO. AT 18Z...AS THE CENTER WAS PASSING SOUTH OF ACAPULCO... A SUSTAINED WIND OF 22 KT WITH A GUST TO 32 KT WAS REPORTED. THIS WIND DATA... ALONG WITH CONSENSUS T1.5 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES... IS BARELY ENOUGH TO KEEP THIS SYSTEM LIMPING ALONG AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 100/09 KT. THE DEPRESSION REMAINS NORTH OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS... AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGER-SCALE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC GYRE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. THE TWO WESTERLY STREAM FLOWS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PUSHING THE CYCLONE EAST OR EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL STILL INSIST THAT TD-2E WILL NOT MOVE INLAND OVER MEXICO. HOWEVER...GIVEN THEIR LESS THAN STERLING PERFORMANCE OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND BRINGS THE CYCLONE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO IN 12 HOURS...AND THEN DISSIPATES IT AFTER THAT...EVEN IF THE CENTER REMAINS OVER WATER. UNFAVORABLE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR... DRY MID-LEVEL AIR PUNCHING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE... AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND SHOULD INHIBIT ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM... AND WILL LIKELY HELP TO BRING ABOUT ITS DEMISE BY THIS TIME TOMORROW... EVEN IF THE CYCLONE CENTER REMAINS OVER WATER. THE GFDL MODEL DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE AFTER 24 HOURS OVER WATER... AND DISSIPATION COULD OCCUR EVEN SOONER IF THE CENTER MOVES INLAND LATER TONIGHT. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/2100Z 16.5N 99.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 12HR VT 05/0600Z 16.3N 99.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTCA31 MHTG 042000Z *** MHTG SIGMET 1 VALID 042000/050200 MHTG- FIR CENTROAMERICA ACT AREA TS OBS SATELLITE IMAGERY BTN 12.0N 81.0W 12.0N 91.0W FRQ TS CBS TPS FL 500 MVG WNW INTSF. ** WTPZ32 KNHC 042341 *** TCPEP2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022006 500 PM PDT SUN JUN 04 2006 ...DEPRESSION BECOMING DISORGANIZED NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... AT 5 PM PDT...0000Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.2 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES... 70 KM...SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/HR... AND ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL MOVE VERY NEAR OR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO LATER TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN A FEW OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE DEPRESSION IS BECOMING DISORGANIZED...AND IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS... CAN BE EXPECTED IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. THESE RAINS COULD LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...16.4 N...99.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM PDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$