** WTSR20 WSSS 040600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPZ22 KNHC 041404 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022006 1500Z SUN JUN 04 2006 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO. THE WARNING MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 101.7W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 101.7W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 101.9W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.9N 101.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 17.0N 100.4W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 101.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPZ42 KNHC 041404 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022006 800 AM PDT SUN JUN 04 2006 VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION AS A RESULT OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. A SMALL BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED VERY NEAR THE CENTER DURING HE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THAT IS THE ONLY THING THAT HAS KEPT THIS SYSTEM ALIVE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY WAS DECREASE TO 25 KT BASED ON CONSENSUS T1.5 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 090/04 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...AND THE RECENT FLAREUP OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS ALLOWED THE CENTER TO BE DRAGGED EAST-NORTHEAST TO EASTWARD BY THIS FLOW REGIME. NOGAPS IS THE ONLY GLOBAL MODEL THAT HINTS AT TAKING THE WEAKENING SYSTEM INLAND NEAR ACAPULCO IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...WHILE THE REST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO DIE-ON-THE-VINE JUST OFFSHORE. EVEN THE GFDL MODEL KEEPS TD-2E OFFSHORE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE THREE BAM MODELS...HOWEVER...TAKE THE DEPRESSION INLAND BY 24 HOURS...ALBEIT PROBABLY TOO FAR UP THE COAST FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ONLY A LITTLE FASTER...AND TAKES THE CYCLONE TO NEAR THE COAST IN 24 HOURS...AND THEN DISSIPATES IT SINCE SUCH A WEAK SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY NOT MAKE IT INTACT OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO. TIME IS RUNNING OUT FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR AND IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE MEXICAN COAST. HOWEVER...IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THE RECENT BURST OF CONVECTION...IF IT PERSISTS...COULD INCREASE THE WINDS BACK TO 30 KT. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/1500Z 16.8N 101.7W 25 KT 12HR VT 05/0000Z 16.9N 101.2W 25 KT 24HR VT 05/1200Z 17.0N 100.4W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTPZ32 KNHC 041404 *** TCPEP2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022006 800 AM PDT SUN JUN 04 2006 ...DEPRESSION MOVING EASTWARD CLOSER TO THE MEXICAN COAST... ...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES STILL A THREAT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO. THE WARNING MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.7 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES...100 KM...SOUTH OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 5 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE MOTION MAY BE ERRATIC AT TIMES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION COULD MOVE INLAND BETWEEN ACAPULCO AND ZIHUATANEJO TONIGHT OR MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF NEAR 25 INCHES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...16.8 N...101.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 041600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 041200Z --- NEAR 16.8N 101.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 16.8N 101.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 16.9N 101.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 17.0N 100.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042200Z, 050400Z AND 051000Z.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 041724 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 04.06.2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E ANALYSED POSITION : 16.7N 101.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.06.2006 16.7N 101.8W WEAK 00UTC 05.06.2006 16.6N 101.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.06.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 041724 ** WTPZ32 KNHC 041744 *** TCPEP2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022006 1100 AM PDT SUN JUN 04 2006 ...DEPRESSION NOW MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE MEXICAN COAST... ...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES STILL A THREAT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.1 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES...45 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 10 MPH... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION COULD MOVE INLAND BETWEEN ACAPULCO AND PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF NEAR 25 INCHES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...16.6 N...100.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM PDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$