** WTIN20 DEMS 040630 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 04-06-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL ,PART OF SE BAY OF BENGAL AND ANDAMAN SEA. RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA LIES ALONG LAT. 24.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPZ42 KNHC 040839 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022006 200 AM PDT SUN JUN 04 2006 A SEQUENCE OF MICROWAVE PASSES...THE MOST RECENT AT 0319Z...INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY...NEAR THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO. THE ADVISORY POSITION...WHICH BLENDS THE MICROWAVE ESTIMATES WITH CONTINUITY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATING THE CENTER...IS PROBABLY 20 N MI OR SO TOO FAR TO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...MOST OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE WITH THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES. THIS SHEARING FLOW IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND SO LITTLE OR NO STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM REMAINS THE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT IS LIKELY TO TRIGGER LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES WITHIN AND INLAND OF THE WARNING AREA. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE MODELS THAT THE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD...LEAVING A WEAK REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO LINGER OFFSHORE. THE MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THIS IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND ONLY VERY SLOWLY BRINGS THE CENTER OF A DECAYING SYSTEM TO THE COAST. THE GFS...UKMET...NOGAPS...AND GFDL ALL DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0900Z 17.0N 102.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 04/1800Z 17.1N 101.6W 30 KT 24HR VT 05/0600Z 17.2N 101.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTPZ22 KNHC 040839 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022006 0900Z SUN JUN 04 2006 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 102.0W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 102.0W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 102.1W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 17.1N 101.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.2N 101.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 102.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPZ32 KNHC 040840 *** TCPEP2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022006 200 AM PDT SUN JUN 04 2006 ...DISORGANIZED DEPRESSION REMAINS STATIONARY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.0 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES... 90 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS STATIONARY. A SLOW AND ERRATIC EASTWARD MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS NECESSARY FOR THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF NEAR 25 INCHES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...17.0 N...102.0 W. MOVEMENT... STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 041000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 040600Z --- NEAR 17.0N 102.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 102.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 17.1N 101.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 17.2N 101.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 13 FEET.NEXT WARNINGS AT 041600Z, 042200Z AND 050400Z.// ** WTPZ32 KNHC 041149 *** TCPEP2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022006 500 AM PDT SUN JUN 04 2006 ...DISORGANIZED DEPRESSION DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD... ...HEAVY RAINFALL STILL OCCURRING ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST AND WELL INLAND... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO. THE WARNING MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.9 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES... 100 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING ERRATICALLY EASTWARD... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS NECESSARY FOR THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF NEAR 25 INCHES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...16.8 N...101.9 W. MOVEMENT... DRIFTING EASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM PDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$