** WTSR20 WSSS 031800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPZ22 KNHC 040230 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022006 0300Z SUN JUN 04 2006 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 102.0W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 102.0W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 102.0W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 17.7N 101.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.0N 101.0W...INLAND DISSIPATING MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 102.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN $$ ** WTPZ42 KNHC 040230 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022006 800 PM PDT SAT JUN 03 2006 INFRARED AND VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E REMAINS OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO. 2346Z TRMM AND 0106Z SSMI OVERPASSES INDICATED THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS PARTLY EXPOSED ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO SHEAR. SINCE THEN...CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...30 KT TAFB...35 KT SAB...ALONG WITH THE POOR SATELLITE REPRESENTATION... THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT. DUE TO SHEAR AND THE PROXIMITY TO LAND...THE POTENTIAL TO INTENSIFY TO A TROPICAL STORM IS DIMINISHING. EVEN THOUGH IT IS NOT REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...A CHANCE STILL EXISTS FOR THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 035/6. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE SOUTH OF EASTERN MEXICO AND A CUT-OFF LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. IN 24-36 HOURS... THE STEERING MECHANISMS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD IN A COL AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO MAKE A LOOP OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO TAKE THE DEPRESSION INLAND BEFORE THIS LOOP COULD OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH LANDFALL OCCURRING IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. REGARDLESS TO WHETHER THE CYCLONE BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM OR NOT... THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0300Z 17.2N 102.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 04/1200Z 17.7N 101.5W 30 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 05/0000Z 18.0N 101.0W 20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 36HR VT 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTPZ32 KNHC 040230 *** TCPEP2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022006 800 PM PDT SAT JUN 03 2006 ...DEPRESSION APPROACHING SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO...HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE GREATEST THREAT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.0 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES... 70 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM PRIOR TO THE CENTER REACHING THE COAST OF MEXICO WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED THEREAFTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF NEAR 25 INCHES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...17.2 N...102.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT. FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 040517 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 04.06.2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ANALYSED POSITION : 17.3N 102.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 04.06.2006 17.3N 102.2W WEAK 12UTC 04.06.2006 16.7N 101.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 05.06.2006 16.6N 100.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 05.06.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 040517 ** WTPZ32 KNHC 040550 *** TCPEP2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022006 1100 PM PDT SAT JUN 03 2006 ...DEPRESSION STALLS OFFSHORE AS DANGEROUS RAINS CONTINUE... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM PDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.0 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES... 85 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION COULD RESUME OVERNIGHT... WHICH WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM PRIOR TO REACHING THE COAST OF MEXICO. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF NEAR 25 INCHES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM PDT POSITION...17.0 N...102.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM PDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$