** WTPZ32 KNHC 032031 *** TCPEP2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022006 200 PM PDT SAT JUN 03 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEARING STORM STRENGTH HEADING FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO...TORRENTIAL RAINS IN ACAPULCO... AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.3 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES...135 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR THE COAST EARLY SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE CROSSING THE COAST OF MEXICO. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF NEAR 20 INCHES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. ACCORDING TO THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO ACAPULCO ALREADY MEASURED NEAR 11 INCHES OF RAIN. REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...16.7 N...102.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTPZ22 KNHC 032032 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022006 2100Z SAT JUN 03 2006 AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 102.3W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 102.3W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 102.5W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 17.6N 101.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 18.0N 101.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 18.0N 100.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 102.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTPZ42 KNHC 032032 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022006 200 PM PDT SAT JUN 03 2006 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. IT NOW CONSISTS OF AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND SOME CONVECTIVE BANDS IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT. BASED ON T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 30 KNOTS. THE UPPER- LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AND A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY INTERACTING WITH LAND. THEREFORE...ONLY A 5-KNOT INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. THIS BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL AND PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO. THE CENTER CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND APPEARS TO BE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 035 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO BE STEERED TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE RAIN IS ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND ACCORDING TO THE MEXICAN WEATHER SERVICE...ACAPULCO HAS ALREADY REPORTED NEARLY 11 INCHES OF RAIN. GLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON KEEPING A WEAKER CYCLONE MEANDERING NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN MEXICAN COAST FOR A FEW DAYS. IF THE CENTER REMAINS OVER WATER AS INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE DEPRESSION COULD MAINTAIN ITS IDENTITY LONGER INSTEAD OF DISSIPATING OVER LAND. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/2100Z 16.7N 102.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 04/0600Z 17.6N 101.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 04/1800Z 18.0N 101.0W 25 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 05/0600Z 18.0N 100.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTPZ32 KNHC 032350 *** TCPEP2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022006 500 PM PDT SAT JUN 03 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPROACHING SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.2 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES...110 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR THE COAST EARLY SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE CROSSING THE COAST OF MEXICO. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF NEAR 20 INCHES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...16.9 N... 102.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM PDT. FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN $$