** WTSR20 WSSS 030600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPZ42 KNHC 031433 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022006 800 AM PDT SAT JUN 03 2006 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS BEEN MONITORING FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION AND ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND SINCE A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY INTERACTING WITH LAND...NO SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...A SMALL DECREASE IN THE WIND SHEAR COULD BRING THE DEPRESSION TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS. THE CENTER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT IT APPEARS TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST AMSU DATA AND HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGES. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 020/06...AND THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST BY A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO EARLY SUNDAY. ONE SHOULD NOTE THAT SOME GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE CYCLONE MEANDERING ALONG AND NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FOR A FEW DAYS. THIS SOLUTION IS ALSO A POSSIBLE ONE. BECAUSE THE DEPRESSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...THE PRIMARY THREAT IS HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO MANZANILLO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/1500Z 16.0N 102.8W 25 KT 12HR VT 04/0000Z 16.7N 102.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 04/1200Z 17.5N 101.5W 30 KT 36HR VT 05/0000Z 17.5N 100.5W 20 KT 48HR VT 05/1200Z 17.5N 99.5W 20 KT $$ ** WTPZ22 KNHC 031433 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022006 1500Z SAT JUN 03 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 102.8W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 102.8W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 103.0W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.7N 102.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 17.5N 101.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.5N 100.5W MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 17.5N 99.5W MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 102.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTPZ32 KNHC 031434 *** TCPEP2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022006 800 AM PDT SAT JUN 03 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE COAST... AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.8 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES...230 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HEAVY RAINS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN ACAPULCO AND LAZARO CARDENAS. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...16.0 N...102.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM PDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTPZ22 KNHC 031437 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022006 1500Z SAT JUN 03 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 102.8W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 102.8W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 103.0W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.7N 102.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 17.5N 101.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.5N 100.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 17.5N 99.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 102.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 031716 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 03.06.2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E ANALYSED POSITION: 16.6N 103.5W EP022006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 03.06.2006 16.6N 103.5W WEAK 00UTC 04.06.2006 16.0N 103.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.06.2006 17.1N 102.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.06.2006 16.1N 102.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.06.2006 16.8N 102.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.06.2006 15.6N 101.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.06.2006 14.8N 100.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.06.2006 14.9N 100.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.06.2006 15.1N 100.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.06.2006 15.6N 100.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.06.2006 16.2N 100.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 09.06.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 031716