** WTSR20 WSSS 300600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPZ41 KNHC 301443 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006 800 AM PDT TUE MAY 30 2006 ALTHOUGH ALETTA CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION...THERE IS NO APPRECIABLE ORGANIZATION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 25 AND 30 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1230Z. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT COULD BE A SHADE HIGH. HIGH CLOUDS JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALETTA ARE MOVING TOWARD THE CYCLONE AT 30-35 KT...INDICATIVE OF UNFAVORABLE SHEAR...AND GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS SHEAR IS ONLY GOING TO GET STRONGER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BECAUSE ALETTA WILL REMAIN OVER 28-29C WATER...IT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO GENERATE INTERMITTENT CONVECTION. THE STRONG SHEAR AND DRY ENVIRONMENT ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A GRADUAL DECAY OF THE CIRCULATION. EVEN WITH THE LATEST QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE CENTER...WHICH MIGHT INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION IS FADING FASTER THAN INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/5. ALETTA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF A MID- TO LOWER-LEVEL RIDGE AND BE STEERED GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE DIFFICULTY HOLDING ON TO A CENTER...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE MEDIUM BAM MODEL. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/1500Z 16.0N 103.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 31/0000Z 15.9N 104.2W 30 KT 24HR VT 31/1200Z 15.6N 105.3W 25 KT 36HR VT 01/0000Z 15.3N 106.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 01/1200Z 15.1N 107.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 02/1200Z 15.0N 109.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 03/1200Z 15.0N 111.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 04/1200Z 15.0N 114.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 301444 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006 1500Z TUE MAY 30 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 103.5W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 103.5W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 103.3W FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 15.9N 104.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 15.6N 105.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 15.3N 106.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 15.1N 107.6W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.0N 109.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 15.0N 111.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 15.0N 114.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 103.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 301600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ALETTA) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 301200Z --- NEAR 16.0N 103.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 103.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 15.9N 104.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 15.6N 105.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 15.3N 106.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 15.1N 107.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 15.0N 109.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 15.0N 111.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 15.0N 114.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT --- REMARKS: 301600Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 103.6W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302200Z, 310400Z, 311000Z AND 311600Z.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 301704 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 30.05.2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.0N 103.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP012006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 30.05.2006 16.0N 103.3W MODERATE 00UTC 31.05.2006 16.1N 104.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.05.2006 15.6N 105.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.06.2006 15.6N 107.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.06.2006 15.6N 108.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.06.2006 14.9N 108.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 02.06.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 301704