** WTIN20 DEMS 300640 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 30-05-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL SOUTH EAST AND ADJOINING EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG LAT.18.0 DEG.NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPZ21 KNHC 300840 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006 0900Z TUE MAY 30 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 102.8W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 102.8W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 102.5W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 15.9N 103.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 15.8N 104.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 15.6N 105.1W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 15.3N 106.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.0N 107.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 15.0N 109.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 15.0N 111.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 102.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 300857 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006 200 AM PDT TUE MAY 30 2006 DEEP CONVECTION HAD BEEN ABSENT FROM ALETTA FOR ABOUT EIGHT HOURS UNTIL IT RESUMED AROUND 04Z THIS MORNING. WHILE THE RECENT BURST HAS PERSISTED FOR A FEW HOURS... THE CONVECTION IS NOT ALL THAT WELL ORGANIZED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 30 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 06Z DVORAK ESTIMATES. CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE PASSING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER... INDICATIVE OF THE INCREASING SHEAR THAT HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE WEAKENING OF THIS SMALL CYCLONE SINCE YESTERDAY... AND THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAIRLY STABLE AND DRY. GIVEN HOW MUCH ALETTA HAS STRUGGLED AGAINST THESE CONDITIONS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS... AND SINCE WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO ROUGHLY DOUBLE IN MAGNITUDE DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS... RESTRENGTHENING DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST ANTICIPATES THE CYCLONE TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN ABOUT 36 HOURS... A BIT FASTER THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 4 KT TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE EVENTUAL REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR SEVERAL DAYS... ALTHOUGH THE LOW COULD LOSE ITS IDENTITY SOONER THAN SHOWN IN THE FORECAST. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0900Z 16.0N 102.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 30/1800Z 15.9N 103.3W 30 KT 24HR VT 31/0600Z 15.8N 104.2W 25 KT 36HR VT 31/1800Z 15.6N 105.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 01/0600Z 15.3N 106.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 02/0600Z 15.0N 107.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 03/0600Z 15.0N 109.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 04/0600Z 15.0N 111.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 301000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ALETTA) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 300600Z --- NEAR 16.0N 102.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 102.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 15.9N 103.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 15.8N 104.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 15.6N 105.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 15.3N 106.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 15.0N 107.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 15.0N 109.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 15.0N 111.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT --- REMARKS: 301000Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 102.8W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301600Z, 302200Z, 310400Z AND 311000Z.//