** WTSR20 WSSS 291800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPZ21 KNHC 300229 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006 0300Z TUE MAY 30 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 102.3W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 102.3W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 102.1W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 15.9N 102.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 15.8N 103.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 15.7N 104.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 15.6N 105.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.5N 107.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 15.5N 109.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 15.5N 111.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 102.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 300229 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006 800 PM PDT MON MAY 29 2006 ALETTA IS STRUGGLING FOR SURVIVAL. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS HIGHLY DISORGANIZED AND THERE IS LITTLE...IF ANY...DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE. AN AMSR-E IMAGE FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO SUGGESTED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WAS POORLY DEFINED. THE SYSTEM IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB...AS WELL AS THE CURRENTLY DISHEVELED APPEARANCE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. ALETTA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A RATHER DRY MID-LEVEL AIR MASS...AND WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BEGIN INCREASING IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. THESE FACTORS...ALONG WITH THE CURRENT TREND...WOULD APPEAR TO MITIGATE AGAINST RE-STRENGTHENING. NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ALETTA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE LATTER EVENT COULD OCCUR SOONER. INITIAL MOTION IS SLOWLY WESTWARD...270/3. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ALETTA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS REGIME SHOULD MAINTAIN A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0300Z 16.0N 102.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 30/1200Z 15.9N 102.8W 30 KT 24HR VT 31/0000Z 15.8N 103.7W 30 KT 36HR VT 31/1200Z 15.7N 104.5W 30 KT 48HR VT 01/0000Z 15.6N 105.6W 30 KT 72HR VT 02/0000Z 15.5N 107.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 03/0000Z 15.5N 109.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 04/0000Z 15.5N 111.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 300400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ALETTA) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 300000Z --- NEAR 16.0N 102.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 102.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 15.9N 102.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 15.8N 103.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 15.7N 104.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 15.6N 105.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 15.5N 107.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 15.5N 109.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 15.5N 111.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 300400Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 102.5W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301000Z, 301600Z, 302200Z AND 310400Z.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 300502 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 30.05.2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.3N 102.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP012006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 30.05.2006 16.3N 102.1W WEAK 12UTC 30.05.2006 15.8N 103.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 31.05.2006 15.9N 104.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 31.05.2006 15.6N 105.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.06.2006 15.3N 106.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.06.2006 14.9N 108.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.06.2006 14.1N 109.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.06.2006 13.4N 110.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.06.2006 13.3N 109.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.06.2006 13.6N 110.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.06.2006 14.4N 109.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.06.2006 14.8N 109.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.06.2006 15.2N 108.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 300502