** WTPZ21 KNHC 292030 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALETTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006 2100Z MON MAY 29 2006 THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ALONG THE THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 102.1W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 102.1W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 101.9W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 15.9N 102.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 15.8N 103.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 15.8N 104.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 15.6N 105.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 15.5N 107.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 15.5N 109.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 15.5N 111.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 102.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 292032 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006 200 PM PDT MON MAY 29 2006 THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ALETTA BRIEFLY APPEARED EARLIER TODAY AS A BANDING FEATURE WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER... INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS AND THE CONVECTION IS VERY POORLY ORGANIZED. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS STILL SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AND ALTHOUGH THIS APPEARS TO BE GENEROUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 270/05. ALETTA HAS MAINTAINED A WESTWARD MOTION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD A RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CYCLONE AND STEER ALETTA WESTWARD...HOWEVER MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE WITHIN 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE BAMM IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ONLY A SMALL WINDOW EXISTS FOR ALETTA TO SLIGHTLY RE-STRENGTHEN AS THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO DECREASE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE INCREASING SHARPLY IN A DAY OR SO. ON THE OTHER HAND...IF THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE TREND CONTINUES...ALETTA MAY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SOONER RATHER THAN LATER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FAVORS THE GFDL GUIDANCE...WHEREAS THE SHIPS MODEL IS STRONGER BUT APPEARS UNREALISTIC DUE TO THE INCREASING SHEAR. AS A RESULT OF THE IMPINGING DRY AIR AND FORECASTED INCREASED SHEAR IN THE LATER PERIODS...THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 4-5 DAYS...IF NOT SOONER. FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/2100Z 15.9N 102.1W 35 KT 12HR VT 30/0600Z 15.9N 102.8W 40 KT 24HR VT 30/1800Z 15.8N 103.7W 40 KT 36HR VT 31/0600Z 15.8N 104.7W 35 KT 48HR VT 31/1800Z 15.6N 105.7W 35 KT 72HR VT 01/1800Z 15.5N 107.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 02/1800Z 15.5N 109.0W 25 KT 120HR VT 03/1800Z 15.5N 111.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$