** WTSR20 WSSS 290600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPZ31 KNHC 291443 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ALETTA ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006 800 AM PDT MON MAY 29 2006 ...ALETTA WEAKENS AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY FOR A PORTION OF THE WARNED AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.4 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES...190 KM...SOUTH OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO. ALETTA IS DRIFTING WESTWARD...AND A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. ALETTA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN REGIONS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...16.0 N...101.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...DRIFTING WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT. FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 291444 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALETTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006 1500Z MON MAY 29 2006 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY FOR A PORTION OF THE WARNED AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 101.4W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 101.4W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 101.3W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 16.0N 102.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 16.0N 102.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 25NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 16.0N 103.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 16.0N 104.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 16.0N 106.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 25NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 15.5N 108.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 15.5N 110.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 101.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 291506 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006 800 AM PDT MON MAY 29 2006 LOCATING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT THIS MORNING...AND THE EARLY SATELLITE VISIBLE PICTURES PROVIDE LITTLE ADDITIONAL ASSISTANCE. THE INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A DECREASE IN OVERALL DEEP CONVECTION...HOWEVER SOME CLUSTERS HAVE RE-DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST HOUR. A RECENT 1304Z QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALS NO WINDS OVER 30 KT...AND AN ANALYSIS OF THE AMBIGUITIES INDICATE THE LOW- LEVEL CENTER IS SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO A GENEROUS 35 KT... BASED UPON THE 1304 QUIKSCAT PASS AND DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND AFWA. DESPITE THE CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION...SOME MODEST RE-STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE IF THE SHEAR DECREASES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 270/02 KT. THE QUIKSCAT PASS INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT THE WESTWARD TURN AWAY FROM THE COAST HAS BEGUN AND IT MAY BE POSSIBLE TO LOWER THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS THIS AFTERNOON. ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD A RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CYCLONE AS THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH LIFTS OUT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUING A WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONLY OUTLIER... NOGAPS...CONTINUES TO TAKE ALETTA ON A MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK PARALLELING THE COASTLINE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT SLIGHTLY FASTER TO THE WEST. FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/1500Z 16.0N 101.4W 35 KT 12HR VT 30/0000Z 16.0N 102.0W 40 KT 24HR VT 30/1200Z 16.0N 102.6W 45 KT 36HR VT 31/0000Z 16.0N 103.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 31/1200Z 16.0N 104.5W 50 KT 72HR VT 01/1200Z 16.0N 106.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 02/1200Z 15.5N 108.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 03/1200Z 15.5N 110.0W 40 KT $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 291600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALETTA) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 291200Z --- NEAR 16.1N 101.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.1N 101.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 16.0N 102.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 16.0N 102.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 16.0N 103.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 16.0N 104.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 16.0N 106.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 15.5N 108.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 15.5N 110.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT --- REMARKS: 291600Z POSITION NEAR 16.1N 101.5W. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 01E (ALETTA) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM WSW OF ACAPULCO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292200Z, 300400Z, 301000Z AND 301600Z.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 291634 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 29.05.2006 TROPICAL STORM ALETTA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.8N 101.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP012006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 29.05.2006 15.8N 101.0W WEAK 00UTC 30.05.2006 16.2N 101.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.05.2006 15.9N 102.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.05.2006 15.9N 103.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 31.05.2006 16.0N 104.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.06.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 291634 ** WTPZ31 KNHC 291736 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ALETTA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006 1100 AM PDT MON MAY 29 2006 ...ALETTA MOVING WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE MEXICAN COAST...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED... AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CANCELED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.8 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES...195 KM...SOUTH OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO. ALETTA IS MOVING WEST AT 4 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. RAINFALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH ALETTA IS DIMINISHING ALONG THE COASTLINE. REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...16.0 N...101.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST AT 4 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. THIS WILL BE THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ON ALETTA ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN $$