** WTIN20 DEMS 290650 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 29-05-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG LAT.20.0 DEG.NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPZ21 KNHC 290828 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALETTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006 0900Z MON MAY 29 2006 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TO THE EAST OF ACAPULCO MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 101.0W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 101.0W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 101.0W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 16.4N 101.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 16.4N 102.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 16.4N 102.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 16.4N 103.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 16.3N 104.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 16.0N 106.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 16.0N 107.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 101.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPZ31 KNHC 290831 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ALETTA ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006 200 AM PDT MON MAY 29 2006 ...ALETTA BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TO THE EAST OF ACAPULCO MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.0 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES...140 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ALETTA IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR...AND A CONTINUED SLOW MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. ALETTA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN REGIONS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...16.2 N...101.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 290851 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006 200 AM PDT MON MAY 29 2006 MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY AROUND 03Z INDICATED THE CENTER OF ALETTA HAD REMAINED WELL-DEFINED AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUED TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...SINCE THE LAST MICROWAVE OVERPASS... INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY A SMALL CDO HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...45 KT FROM AFWA...AND THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF THE CDO-LIKE CONVECTIVE FEATURE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 360/02 KT...BASED ON MICROWAVE POSITION ESTIMATES BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z. ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF ALETTA SLOWLY DEVELOPS EASTWARD. THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS EVOLVING SCENARIO...AND THE ONLY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS LIES IN HOW FAST THEY MOVE ALETTA WESTWARD AFTER 72 HOURS. THE UKMET APPEARS TO BE TOO FAST IN THE LATTER PERIODS...WHICH HAS CONTAMINATED THE GUNA AND GUNS CONSENSUS FORECASTS. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN GUNA AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THE MUCH ADVERTISED DECREASE IN THE VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS FINALLY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED TO THE WEST...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CDO-LIKE FEATURE COULD BE THE ONSET OF MORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION... MAINLY IN THE SHORT TERM. THE SHIPS MODEL DECREASES THE VERTICAL SHEAR TO ABOUT 5 KT BY 24 HOURS...AND THEN GRADUALLY INCREASES THE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR TO 20-25 BY 48 HOURS AND BEYOND. THEREFORE... THE INTENSIFICATION TREND WAS INCREASED A LITTLE BIT ABOVE THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND THEN IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECASTS AFTER THAT. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/0900Z 16.2N 101.0W 40 KT 12HR VT 29/1800Z 16.4N 101.2W 45 KT 24HR VT 30/0600Z 16.4N 102.0W 50 KT 36HR VT 30/1800Z 16.4N 102.7W 55 KT 48HR VT 31/0600Z 16.4N 103.4W 55 KT 72HR VT 01/0600Z 16.3N 104.7W 50 KT 96HR VT 02/0600Z 16.0N 106.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 03/0600Z 16.0N 107.5W 45 KT $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 291000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALETTA) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 290600Z --- NEAR 16.1N 101.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.1N 101.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 16.4N 101.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 16.4N 102.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 16.4N 102.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 16.4N 103.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 16.3N 104.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 16.0N 106.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 16.0N 107.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT --- REMARKS: 291000Z POSITION NEAR 16.2N 101.1W. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 01E (ALETTA) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM WSW OF ACAPULCO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291600Z, 292200Z, 300400Z AND 301000Z.// ** WTPZ31 KNHC 291139 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ALETTA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006 500 AM PDT MON MAY 29 2006 ...ALETTA MEANDERING OFFSHORE... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TO THE EAST OF ACAPULCO MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.2 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES...165 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ALETTA HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND A CONTINUED SLOW MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. ALETTA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN REGIONS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...16.2 N...101.2 W. MOVEMENT NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM PDT. FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN $$