** WTSR20 WSSS 281800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPZ31 KNHC 290233 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ALETTA ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006 800 PM PDT SUN MAY 28 2006 ...ALETTA STILL MOVING VERY SLOWLY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.0 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES...155 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ALETTA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR...AND A CONTINUED SLOW MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. ALETTA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN REGIONS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...16.0 N...101.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 290233 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALETTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006 0300Z MON MAY 29 2006 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 101.0W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 101.0W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 101.0W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 16.2N 101.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 16.5N 101.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 25NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 16.6N 101.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 16.6N 102.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 16.5N 104.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 16.5N 105.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 16.5N 107.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 101.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 290234 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006 800 PM PDT SUN MAY 28 2006 AS WAS THE CASE EARLIER TODAY...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE USING GEOSYNCHRONOUS SATELLITE IMAGES. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION AND A FAIR CENTER FIX OFF OF A RECENT...0051 UTC... SSM/I IMAGE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 360/2. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ABOUT A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. EVEN THE GFDL HAS BACKED OFF FROM ITS INSISTENT FORECAST OF A LANDFALL IN MEXICO...AND NOW SHOWS A TRACK PARALLEL TO THE COAST. A GRADUAL LEFT TURN IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECASTS SHOWING THE BUILDING OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG ABOUT 20N LATITUDE BY 36-48 HOURS. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS QUITE POORLY ORGANIZED AT THE MOMENT. THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS BANDING FEATURES...AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. I CONSIDERED DECREASING THE CURRENT INTENSITY...BUT THE SYSTEM IS PROBABLY UNDERGOING THE USUAL DIURNAL DECREASE THAT WE OBSERVE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...HENCE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST OVER THE 48 HOURS. LATER IN THE PERIOD...ALETTA IS LIKELY TO ENTER A REGION OF STRENGTHENING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE SHEAR COULD INCREASE TO MORE THAN 20 KT IN 2-3 DAYS...WHICH WOULD INHIBIT ANY FURTHER STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE RATHER CLOSELY...HOWEVER THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT THE INCREASING SHEAR COULD WEAKEN ALETTA MORE THAN EXPECTED IN 3-5 DAYS. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/0300Z 16.0N 101.0W 40 KT 12HR VT 29/1200Z 16.2N 101.0W 40 KT 24HR VT 30/0000Z 16.5N 101.2W 45 KT 36HR VT 30/1200Z 16.6N 101.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 31/0000Z 16.6N 102.4W 50 KT 72HR VT 01/0000Z 16.5N 104.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 02/0000Z 16.5N 105.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 03/0000Z 16.5N 107.0W 45 KT $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 290400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALETTA) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 290000Z --- NEAR 16.2N 101.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 101.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 16.2N 101.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 16.5N 101.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 16.6N 101.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 16.6N 102.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 16.5N 104.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 16.5N 105.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 16.5N 107.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT --- REMARKS: 290400Z POSITION NEAR 16.2N 101.0W. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 01E (ALETTA) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291000Z, 291600Z, 292200Z AND 300400Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 290400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALETTA) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 290000Z --- NEAR 16.2N 101.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 101.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 16.2N 101.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 16.5N 101.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 16.6N 101.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 16.6N 102.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 16.5N 104.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 16.5N 105.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 16.5N 107.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT --- REMARKS: 290400Z POSITION NEAR 16.2N 101.0W. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 01E (ALETTA) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291000Z, 291600Z, 292200Z AND 300400Z.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 290544 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 29.05.2006 TROPICAL STORM ALETTA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.5N 101.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP012006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 29.05.2006 15.5N 101.0W WEAK 12UTC 29.05.2006 15.3N 101.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.05.2006 15.2N 102.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.05.2006 14.8N 103.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 31.05.2006 14.9N 104.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.05.2006 14.7N 105.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.06.2006 14.5N 107.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.06.2006 14.2N 108.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.06.2006 14.2N 109.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.06.2006 14.0N 110.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.06.2006 14.0N 110.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.06.2006 14.2N 110.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.06.2006 14.5N 110.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 290544 ** WTPZ31 KNHC 290547 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ALETTA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006 1100 PM PDT SUN MAY 28 2006 ...ALETTA STILL DRIFTING NORTHWARD... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM PDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.0 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES...150 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ALETTA IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR...AND A CONTINUED SLOW MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. ALETTA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN REGIONS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM PDT POSITION...16.1 N...101.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM PDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$