** WTPZ21 KNHC 282029 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALETTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006 2100Z SUN MAY 28 2006 AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. AT 2 PM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH EAST OF PUNTA MALDONADO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 101.0W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 101.0W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 101.0W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 16.1N 100.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 16.4N 100.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 25NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 16.6N 101.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 16.7N 102.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 16.5N 103.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 16.5N 105.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 16.5N 106.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 101.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPZ31 KNHC 282030 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ALETTA ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006 200 PM PDT SUN MAY 28 2006 ...ALETTA DRIFTING NORTHWARD...WARNING EXTENDED... AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. AT 2 PM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH EAST OF PUNTA MALDONADO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.0 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES...170 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ALETTA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR. AN ERRATIC BUT GENERALLY SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. ALETTA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN REGIONS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...15.8 N...101.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 282032 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006 200 PM PDT SUN MAY 28 2006 THE SURFACE CENTER OF ALETTA IS OBSCURED AND THERE HAVEN'T BEEN ANY RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES OVER THE CYCLONE. THE CURRENT LOCATION AND MOTION ARE THEREFORE SUBJECT TO SOME SPECULATION. WHAT LOW CLOUD LINES THAT ARE VISIBLE ARE ELONGATED AND SUGGESTIVE OF A NORTHEAST/ SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS...RATHER THAN A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. NEVERTHELESS...THERE HAS BEEN AN ABUNDANCE OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER THIS AFTERNOON. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE UNCHANGED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT...ALTHOUGH THE DATA T NUMBERS SUGGEST THIS ESTIMATE MIGHT BE A LITTLE HIGH. OUTFLOW REMAINS RESTRICTED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT LESS SO THAN EARLIER TODAY. THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS DIFFICULT. THIS MORNING'S MODEL RUNS SHOW A LITTLE MORE RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...AND THE NOGAPS NO LONGER BRINGS ALETTA TO THE COASTLINE. THE GFDL...HOWEVER... STILL TAKES ALETTA INLAND NEAR ACAPULCO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS...AND CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS OUT OF RESPECT FOR CONTINUITY AND THE GFDL. ALL GUIDANCE SAVE THE GFDL TAKES ALETTA WESTWARD LATE IN THE PERIOD SOUTH OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT THE WESTERLY SHEAR IS ABATING SOMEWHAT...AND GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN ACCORD WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT HOWEVER...AND BY 72 HOURS THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT WESTERLY SHEAR MAY AGAIN IMPACT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/2100Z 15.8N 101.0W 40 KT 12HR VT 29/0600Z 16.1N 100.9W 40 KT 24HR VT 29/1800Z 16.4N 100.9W 45 KT 36HR VT 30/0600Z 16.6N 101.1W 45 KT 48HR VT 30/1800Z 16.7N 102.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 31/1800Z 16.5N 103.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 01/1800Z 16.5N 105.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 02/1800Z 16.5N 106.5W 50 KT $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 282200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALETTA) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 281800Z --- NEAR 15.8N 101.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 101.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 16.1N 100.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 16.4N 100.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 16.6N 101.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 16.7N 102.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 16.5N 103.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 16.5N 105.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 16.5N 106.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT --- REMARKS: 282200Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 101.0W. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 01E (ALETTA) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290400Z, 291000Z, 291600Z AND 292200Z.// ** WTPZ31 KNHC 282328 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ALETTA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006 500 PM PDT SUN MAY 28 2006 ...ALETTA BARELY MOVING... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.0 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES...160 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ALETTA IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR. AN ERRATIC BUT GENERALLY SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. ALETTA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN REGIONS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...15.9 N...101.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM PDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$