** WTSR20 WSSS 280600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPZ41 KNHC 281428 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006 800 AM PDT SUN MAY 28 2006 AN AQUA MICROWAVE PASS AT 0820Z AND A TRMM PASS AT 1111Z INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF ALETTA DRIFTED WESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD OVERNIGHT AWAY FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH A NEW BURST HAS DEVELOPED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 12Z WERE 45 AND 35 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS STATIONARY. STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS DIVERGENT. A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MEXICO IS CURRENTLY IMPEDING ALETTA'S PROGRESS TOWARD THE COAST...BUT SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF...SUGGEST THAT THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA MOVES EASTWARD. THIS COULD ALLOW ALETTA TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ALTHOUGH THE GFDL TRACKER KEEPS ALETTA OFFSHORE...THE MODEL'S 850 MB VORTICITY CENTER CLEARLY MOVES INLAND EAST OF ACAPULCO IN ABOUT 30 HOURS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE WATCHES OR WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. AFTER 24-48 HOURS...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS RESTRENGTHEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALETTA IS STILL EXPERIENCING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW THAT HAS BEEN LIMITING DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD ALETTA REMAIN OFFSHORE AS FORECAST...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A MORE FAVORABLE ANTICYCLONIC UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WITH LOWER SHEAR SHOULD EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES SOME STRENGTHENING THAT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE. AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION HOWEVER...DRY AIR JUST TO THE WEST OF ALETTA WOULD BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/1500Z 15.5N 101.3W 40 KT 12HR VT 29/0000Z 15.6N 101.3W 40 KT 24HR VT 29/1200Z 15.9N 101.2W 45 KT 36HR VT 30/0000Z 16.2N 101.2W 50 KT 48HR VT 30/1200Z 16.5N 101.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 31/1200Z 16.5N 102.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 01/1200Z 16.5N 103.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 02/1200Z 16.0N 104.5W 55 KT $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 281428 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALETTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006 1500Z SUN MAY 28 2006 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO TECPAN DE GALEANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF PUNTA MALDONAD EASTWARD TO PUERTO ESCONDIDO...AND FROM WEST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 101.3W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 101.3W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 101.4W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 15.6N 101.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 15.9N 101.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 25NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 16.2N 101.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 16.5N 101.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 16.5N 102.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 16.5N 103.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 16.0N 104.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 101.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPZ31 KNHC 281429 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ALETTA ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006 800 AM PDT SUN MAY 28 2006 ...ALETTA NEARLY STATIONARY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO TECPAN DE GALEANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF PUNTA MALDONAD EASTWARD TO PUERTO ESCONDIDO...AND FROM WEST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.3 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES...215 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ALETTA IS STATIONARY...AND AN ERRATIC MOTION IS LIKELY DURING THE DAY TODAY. HOWEVER...A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH COULD RESUME WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE CENTER OF ALETTA CLOSER TO THE COAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH ALETTA. REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...15.5 N...101.3 W. MOVEMENT... STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 281600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALETTA) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 281200Z --- NEAR 15.4N 101.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - QUASI-STATIONARY POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 101.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 15.6N 101.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 15.9N 101.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 16.2N 101.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 16.5N 101.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 16.5N 102.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 16.5N 103.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 16.0N 104.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT --- REMARKS: 281600Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 101.4W. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 01E (ALETTA) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 121 NM SW OF ACAPULCO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282200Z, 290400Z, 291000Z, AND 291600Z// ** WTNT80 EGRR 281658 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 28.05.2006 TROPICAL STORM ALETTA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.2N 101.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP012006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 28.05.2006 16.2N 101.4W WEAK 00UTC 29.05.2006 15.3N 102.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.05.2006 15.5N 102.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.05.2006 14.7N 103.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.05.2006 14.1N 104.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.05.2006 13.9N 106.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.05.2006 13.8N 107.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.06.2006 13.6N 108.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.06.2006 13.2N 109.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.06.2006 13.0N 109.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.06.2006 13.2N 110.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.06.2006 13.3N 111.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.06.2006 13.4N 111.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 281658 ** WTPZ31 KNHC 281747 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ALETTA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006 1100 AM PDT SUN MAY 28 2006 ...ALETTA MEANDERING OFFSHORE... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO TECPAN DE GALEANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF PUNTA MALDONAD EASTWARD TO PUERTO ESCONDIDO...AND FROM WEST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.0 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES...185 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ALETTA HAS BEEN MEANDERING WITH LITTLE OVERALL MOTION THIS MORNING...AND AN ERRATIC MOTION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH COULD RESUME WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE CENTER OF ALETTA CLOSER TO THE COAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH ALETTA. REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...15.6 N...101.0 W. MOVEMENT... STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM PDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$