** WTIN20 DEMS 280650 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 28-05-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG LAT. 23.0 DEG NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPZ41 KNHC 280808 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006 200 AM PDT SUN MAY 28 2006 A BURST OF COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND HAS BEEN PROPAGATING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS PLACED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE LAST ADVISORY POSITION BASED ON A 28/0045Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS. THE INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM TAFB AND 35 KT FROM SAB...AND THE LATEST UW-CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE OF 40 KT. IT IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME TO DETERMINE IF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS MIGRATING SOUTHWARD ALONG WITH THE CONVECTION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CONVECTION HAS JUST SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AS AN EASTWARD MOVING MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CAUSING THE MID-LEVEL FLOW TO SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...HOWEVER...THE INITIAL MOTION WILL REMAIN STATIONARY. NONE OF THE NHC MODELS ARE INDICATING LANDFALL ANY LONGER. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE BAM MODELS...THE REST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE CENTER WELL OFFSHORE THE MEXICAN COAST AND EITHER KEEP IT STATIONARY OR DRIFT IT SOUTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND THEN TAKE IT WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWARD AFTER THAT AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ONLY SLOWER. IF THE SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION INDICATED IN THIS ADVISORY DOES NOT DEVELOP LATER TODAY...THEN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND WATCHES FOR THE MEXICAN COAST WILL NEED TO BE DISCONTINUED. THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL TROUGH NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS FORECAST TO PASS NORTHEAST OF ALETTA DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE MID-LEVEL FLOW TO VEER AROUND MORE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...RELAXING THE SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN HINDERING DEVELOPMENT. THE SHIPS MODEL DECREASES THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR TO LESS THAN 5 KT BY 48 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR DESPITE THE RELATIVELY DRY ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING ALETTA. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0900Z 15.4N 101.0W 40 KT 12HR VT 28/1800Z 15.6N 100.9W 40 KT 24HR VT 29/0600Z 15.9N 100.9W 45 KT 36HR VT 29/1800Z 16.2N 100.8W 50 KT 48HR VT 30/0600Z 16.4N 100.9W 55 KT 72HR VT 31/0600Z 16.3N 101.2W 55 KT 96HR VT 01/0600Z 16.2N 101.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 02/0600Z 16.0N 102.0W 55 KT $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 280808 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALETTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006 0900Z SUN MAY 28 2006 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO TECPAN DE GALEANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM EAST OF PUNTA MALDONADO EASTWARD TO PUERTO ESCONDIDO...AND FROM WEST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 101.0W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 101.0W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 101.0W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 15.6N 100.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 15.9N 100.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 16.2N 100.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 16.4N 100.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 16.3N 101.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 16.2N 101.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 16.0N 102.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 101.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPZ31 KNHC 280809 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ALETTA ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006 200 AM PDT SUN MAY 28 2006 ...ALETTA MEANDERING WELL OFFSHORE THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO TECPAN DE GALEANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM EAST OF PUNTA MALDONADO EASTWARD TO PUERTO ESCONDIDO...AND FROM WEST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.0 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES...205 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ALETTA HAS ESSENTIALLY BEEN STATIONARY THIS MORNING...AND SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...A SLOW NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE CENTER MAY APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY IF THE NORTHWARD MOTION DEVELOPS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM.. MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. ALTHOUGH RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ALETTA HAVE STOPPED MOVING ONSHORE THE MEXICAN COAST THIS MORNING...ADDITIONAL RAIN BANDS MAY REDEVELOP LATER TODAY AND PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...15.4 N...101.0 W. MOVEMENT... STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 281000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALETTA) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 280600Z --- NEAR 15.4N 101.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - QUASI-STATIONARY POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 101.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 15.6N 100.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 15.9N 100.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 16.2N 100.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 01 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 16.4N 100.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER LAND 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 16.3N 101.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 01 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 16.2N 101.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 16.0N 102.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT --- REMARKS: 281000Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 101.0W. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 01E (ALETTA) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM SW OF ACAPULCO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281600Z, 282200Z, 290400Z AND 291000Z.// ** WTPZ31 KNHC 281146 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ALETTA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006 500 AM PDT SUN MAY 28 2006 ...ALETTA CONTINUES TO MEANDER OFF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO TECPAN DE GALEANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM EAST OF PUNTA MALDONADO EASTWARD TO PUERTO ESCONDIDO...AND FROM WEST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.3 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES...220 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ALETTA HAS DRIFTED WESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND CONTINUED ERRATIC MOTION IS LIKELY TODAY. HOWEVER...A SLOW NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE CENTER MAY APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY IF THE NORTHWARD MOTION DEVELOPS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM.. MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. ALTHOUGH RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ALETTA HAVE STOPPED MOVING ONSHORE THE MEXICAN COAST THIS MORNING...ADDITIONAL RAIN BANDS MAY REDEVELOP LATER TODAY AND PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...15.5 N...101.3 W. MOVEMENT... DRIFTING WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM PDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$