** WTSR20 WSSS 271800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPZ41 KNHC 280244 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006 800 PM PDT SAT MAY 27 2006 THE FIRST STORM OF THE SEASON IS LOOKING LIKE A TOUGH ONE TO FORECAST. LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES DEPICTED A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER MOVING WESTWARD...AWAY FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION. SSM/I AND AMSR-E IMAGES ALSO SHOWED A LOW-LEVEL CENTER DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION. UNLESS A NEW CENTER DEVELOPS FARTHER TO THE EAST... ALETTA MAY NOT LAST VERY LONG. GIVEN THAT THE CENTER HAS REFORMED NEAR THE DEEP CONVECTION AT LEAST TWICE ALREADY IN THIS SYSTEM...IT MIGHT NOT BE UNREASONABLE TO EXPECT YET ANOTHER REFORMATION. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 KT. SINCE THE SYSTEM IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE. IN SPITE OF THE CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED STATE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER- TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT OF WEAKER SHEAR AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREFORE...I WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SOME INTENSIFICATION...AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. THIS IS ALSO IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE OVERALL MOTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS... AND STEERING CURRENTS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE ARE NOW NO DYNAMICAL MODELS THAT TAKE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WESTWARD. THE GFDL AND NOGAPS MODELS FORECAST ALETTA TO MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO WITHIN 24-36 HOURS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL'S VORTEX TRACKER...WHICH IS LISTED ON THE STANDARD OUTPUT MESSAGE...LOSES TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND DOES NOT INDICATE LANDFALL. HOWEVER...INSPECTION OF THE GFDL MODEL OUTPUT FIELDS OF SEA LEVEL PRESSURE CLEARLY SHOWS THE CENTER CROSSING THE COAST. SINCE THERE IS CURRENTLY NO CREDIBLE GUIDANCE TO FORECAST A WESTWARD MOTION LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED EASTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND KEEPS THE SYSTEM STATIONARY FROM DAYS 3-5. OBVIOUSLY...ALETTA MAY HAVE MOVED INLAND AND DISSIPATED BY THEN. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0300Z 15.7N 101.0W 35 KT 12HR VT 28/1200Z 16.0N 100.9W 40 KT 24HR VT 29/0000Z 16.3N 100.8W 45 KT 36HR VT 29/1200Z 16.6N 100.7W 50 KT 48HR VT 30/0000Z 16.9N 100.7W 50 KT 72HR VT 31/0000Z 17.0N 101.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 01/0000Z 17.0N 101.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 02/0000Z 17.0N 101.0W 55 KT $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 280244 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALETTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006 0300Z SUN MAY 28 2006 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO TECPAN DE GALEANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM EAST OF PUNTA MALDONADO EASTWARD TO PUERTO ESCONDIDO...AND FROM WEST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 101.0W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 101.0W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 101.0W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 16.0N 100.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 16.3N 100.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 16.6N 100.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 35NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 16.9N 100.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 35NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 17.0N 101.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 25SW 35NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 17.0N 101.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 17.0N 101.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 101.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPZ31 KNHC 280245 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ALETTA ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006 800 PM PDT SAT MAY 27 2006 ...ALETTA MOVING LITTLE... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO TECPAN DE GALEANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM EAST OF PUNTA MALDONADO EASTWARD TO PUERTO ESCONDIDO...AND FROM WEST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.0 WEST OR ABOUT 110 MILES...180 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ALETTA HAS BEEN MEANDERING BUT IS ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY AT THIS TIME. A SLOW NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TONIGHT. THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING THE COAST OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ALETTA WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...15.7 N...101.0 W. MOVEMENT... STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 280400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALETTA) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 280000Z --- NEAR 15.7N 101.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 101.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 16.0N 100.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 16.3N 100.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 16.6N 100.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 16.9N 100.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 17.0N 101.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 00 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 17.0N 101.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 00 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 17.0N 101.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT --- REMARKS: 280400Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 101.0W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281000Z, 281600Z, 282200Z AND 290400Z.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 280506 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 28.05.2006 TROPICAL STORM ALETTA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.6N 101.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP012006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 28.05.2006 15.6N 101.5W WEAK 12UTC 28.05.2006 16.2N 101.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.05.2006 15.6N 101.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.05.2006 15.6N 101.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.05.2006 15.3N 101.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.05.2006 15.0N 102.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 31.05.2006 14.8N 103.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 31.05.2006 14.2N 104.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.06.2006 14.2N 105.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.06.2006 14.8N 104.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.06.2006 15.0N 104.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.06.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 280506 ** WTPZ31 KNHC 280550 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ALETTA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006 1100 PM PDT SAT MAY 27 2006 ...ALETTA DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE MEXICAN COAST... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO TECPAN DE GALEANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM EAST OF PUNTA MALDONADO EASTWARD TO PUERTO ESCONDIDO...AND FROM WEST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM PDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.8 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES...200 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ALETTA HAS BEEN DRIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST...BUT THIS IS LIKELY JUST A TEMPORARY MOTION. A SLOW NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY. THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE APPROACHING THE COAST OF MEXICO BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM... MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ALETTA WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 1100 PM PDT POSITION...15.3 N...100.8 W. MOVEMENT... STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM PDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$