** WTPZ21 KNHC 272007 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALETTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006 2100Z SAT MAY 27 2006 AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO TECPAN DE GALEANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 2 PM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM EAST OF PUNTA MALDONADO EASTWARD TO PUERTO ESCONDIDO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 100.5W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 100.5W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 100.6W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.0N 100.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 16.3N 99.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 16.7N 100.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 35NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 16.9N 100.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 35NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.0N 101.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 25SW 35NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 16.8N 102.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 16.5N 103.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 100.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 272007 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006 200 PM PDT SAT MAY 27 2006 BANDING FEATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE A CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB USING A SHEAR PATTERN. THUS...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN NAMED TROPICAL STORM ALETTA. AN IMPRESSIVE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BEEN NOTED IN BOTH RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY MOST OF THE DAY...BUT MID-LEVEL SHEAR UNDERCUTTING THE OTHERWISE IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS RESULTED IN THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BECOMING EXPOSED JUST WEST OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. THE BROAD CENTER OF ALETTA HAS REFORMED FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST... WHICH MAKES THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 040/03 KT SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. IT APPEARS...HOWEVER... THAT ALETTA HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS NOW...SO A GENERAL SLOW NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME ILL-DEFINED. THE LONE EXCEPTION IS THE NOGAPS MODEL WHICH CONTINUES TO INSIST THAT ALETTA WILL CROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WHILE THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY END UP DOING THAT...IT IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION COULD MAKE IT OVER THE RATHER FORMIDABLE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAIN RANGE. THE CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS... INCLUDING THE GFDL MODEL... CALLS FOR ALETTA TO MOVE NEAR AND POSSIBLY JUST INLAND ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO BY 48 HOURS...AND THEN TURN WESTWARD BACK OVER WATER AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TWO TRACKS...AND IS CLOSE TO THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED... WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISPLACE THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT BY 36 HOURS...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SLOW STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR UP UNTIL ALETTA NEARS LAND IN 36-48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 24 HOURS... AND THEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THEREAFTER WHEN ALETTA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UNDERNEATH THE LARGE-SCALE 200 MB RIDGE AXIS. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS AT ...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO TECPAN DE GALEANA MEXICO. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/2100Z 15.6N 100.5W 35 KT 12HR VT 28/0600Z 16.0N 100.2W 40 KT 24HR VT 28/1800Z 16.3N 99.9W 45 KT 36HR VT 29/0600Z 16.7N 100.3W 50 KT 48HR VT 29/1800Z 16.9N 100.7W 50 KT 72HR VT 30/1800Z 17.0N 101.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 31/1800Z 16.8N 102.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 01/1800Z 16.5N 103.5W 55 KT $$ ** WTPZ31 KNHC 272007 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ALETTA ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006 200 PM PDT SAT MAY 27 2006 ...ALETTA CONTINUES TO MOVE STEADILY TOWARD THE MEXICAN RIVIERA... ...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND WATCH ISSUED... AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO TECPAN DE GALEANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 2 PM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM EAST OF PUNTA MALDONADO EASTWARD TO PUERTO ESCONDIDO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.5 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES...160 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO AND ABOUT 135 MILES...220 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO. ALETTA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM... MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. OUTER RAIN BANDS ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ONSHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES... WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO. REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...15.6 N...100.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 272200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALETTA) WARNING NR 003 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 271800Z --- NEAR 15.6N 100.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 100.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 16.0N 100.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 16.3N 99.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 16.7N 100.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 16.9N 100.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 17.0N 101.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 16.8N 102.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 16.5N 103.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT --- REMARKS: 272200Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 100.4W. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 01E (ALETTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280400Z, 281000Z, 281600Z AND 282200Z.// ** WTPZ31 KNHC 272343 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ALETTA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006 500 PM PDT SAT MAY 27 2006 ...ALETTA MOVING ERRATICALLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE MEXICAN RIVIERA WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO TECPAN DE GALEANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM EAST OF PUNTA MALDONADO EASTWARD TO PUERTO ESCONDIDO...AND FROM WEST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.7 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES...150 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ALETTA HAS BEEN MEANDERING BUT APPEARS TO BE MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE NEARING THE COAST OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM... MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. OUTER RAIN BANDS ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ONSHORE ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES... WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO. REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...15.8 N...100.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM PDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$