** WTSR20 WSSS 270600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPZ41 KNHC 271410 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006 800 AM PDT SAT MAY 27 2006 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURROUNDING SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E HAS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. A LARGE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR HAS TEMPORARILY WEAKENED SOMEWHAT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OS 30 KT AND 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. AT 12Z...SHIP H9UY LOCATED ABOUT 100 NMI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER REPORTED WESTERLY WINDS OF 21 KT AND A PRESSURE OF 1006.0 MB. THE BROAD CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING OR REFORMING SLOWLY NORTH OR EVEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 4 KT CLOSER TO THE STRONG CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND ONLY A SLOW DRIFT TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...WEAK RIDGING FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND CENTRAL MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO NUDGE THE CYCLONE SLOWLY WESTWARD. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE MODELS... LIKE NOGAPS AND THE ECMWF...MOVE THE STORM INTO MEXICO NEAR ACAPULCO IN 48-72 HOURS BEFORE TURNING IT SLOWLY WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...MAINLY DUE TO THE CURRENT WEAK WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MODEL AND A BLEND OF THE MEDIUM AND DEEP BAM MODELS. THE CURRENT MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN TO 5-10 KT BY 36 HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME GRADUAL SLOW INTENSIFICATION...AND THE CYCLONE COULD EASILY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT FOR A 30- AND 35-KT TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 96 HOURS...AND THIS IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY IF THE CENTER REMAINS FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THE COAST OF MEXICO. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS AT THIS TIME... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/1500Z 15.1N 101.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 28/0000Z 15.5N 101.2W 35 KT 24HR VT 28/1200Z 16.0N 101.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 29/0000Z 16.4N 100.9W 45 KT 48HR VT 29/1200Z 16.7N 101.4W 45 KT 72HR VT 30/1200Z 16.8N 101.9W 45 KT 96HR VT 31/1200Z 16.8N 102.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 01/1200Z 16.8N 103.0W 45 KT $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 271411 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006 1500Z SAT MAY 27 2006 AT 8 AM PDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 101.3W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 101.3W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 101.3W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.5N 101.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 16.0N 101.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 16.4N 100.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 16.7N 101.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 16.8N 101.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 16.8N 102.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 16.8N 103.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 101.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPZ31 KNHC 271412 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006 800 AM PDT SAT MAY 27 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO... AT 8 AM PDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.3 WEST OR ABOUT 155 MILES...250 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. OUTER RAIN BANDS ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SPREAD ONSHORE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO. REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...15.1 N...101.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 271600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 271200Z --- NEAR 14.9N 101.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 101.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 15.5N 101.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 16.0N 101.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 16.4N 100.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 16.7N 101.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 16.8N 101.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 16.8N 102.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 16.8N 103.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT --- REMARKS: 271600Z POSITION NEAR 15.2N 101.3W. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01E IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM SW OF ACAPULCO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 8 FT. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272200Z, 280400Z, 281000Z AND 281600Z.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 271649 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 27.05.2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N 100.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP012006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 27.05.2006 15.2N 100.4W WEAK 00UTC 28.05.2006 15.9N 102.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.05.2006 14.9N 102.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.05.2006 15.1N 101.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.05.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 271649 ** WTPZ31 KNHC 271745 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ALETTA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006 1100 AM PDT SAT MAY 27 2006 ...FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2006 EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE MEXICAN RIVIERA... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALETTA HAS REDEVELOPED FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.6 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES... 170 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ALETTA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION... ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED... IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. OUTER RAIN BANDS ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE SPREAD ONSHORE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO. REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...15.5 N...100.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM PDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$