** WTIN20 DEMS 270710 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 27-05-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER WEST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA(.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 25.0 DEG. NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPZ41 KNHC 270943 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006 300 AM PDT SAT MAY 27 2006 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A 25-KNOT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO BE UNDER A STRONG SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND. ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED...ONLY SMALL RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR COULD BRING THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING VERY LITTLE AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. THEREFORE... THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MEANDER SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST GFDL AND GLOBAL MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER...ANY NORTHWARD DRIFT COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/1000Z 14.5N 101.5W 25 KT 12HR VT 27/1800Z 14.6N 101.6W 30 KT 24HR VT 28/0600Z 15.0N 101.5W 30 KT 36HR VT 28/1800Z 15.5N 101.4W 30 KT 48HR VT 29/0600Z 16.0N 101.5W 30 KT 72HR VT 30/0600Z 16.5N 102.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 31/0600Z 16.5N 102.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 01/0600Z 16.5N 103.0W 30 KT $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 270943 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006 1000Z SAT MAY 27 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 101.5W AT 27/1000Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 101.5W AT 27/1000Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 101.5W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.6N 101.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 15.0N 101.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 15.5N 101.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 16.0N 101.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 16.5N 102.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 16.5N 102.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 16.5N 103.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 101.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 271000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/270930MAY2006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 270600Z --- NEAR 14.5N 101.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 101.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 14.6N 101.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 15.0N 101.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 15.5N 101.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 16.0N 101.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 16.5N 102.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 16.5N 102.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 16.5N 103.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: 271000Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 101.5W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 8 FEET. AT 270600Z TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED 166 NM SW OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271600Z, 272200Z, 280400Z AND 281000Z.//