** WTIN20 DEMS 180623 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 18-05-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL ANDAMAN SEA AND PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL BAY. RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 17.0 DEG NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPQ20 BABJ 180600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 180600 UTC 00HR 25.9N 119.2E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 350KM P12HR NE 30KM/H P+24HR 32.8N 125.0E 1000HPA 15M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 180600 *** WARNING 180600. WARNING VALID 190600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0601 CHANCHU (0601) DOWNGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 996 HPA AT 26.1N 119.3E SOUTH CHINA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 20 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 32.9N 125.5E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 180600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0601 CHANCHU (0601) DOWNGRADED FROM STS ANALYSIS PSTN 180600UTC 26.1N 119.3E FAIR MOVE NNE 20KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 260NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 190600UTC 32.9N 125.5E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTKO20 RKSL 180600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 13 NAME TS 0601 CHANCHU ANALYSIS POSITION 180600UTC 26.1N 119.3E MOVEMENT NNE 21KT PRES/VMAX 996HPA 35KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 181800UTC 29.4N 122.0E WITHIN 0NM PRES 1000HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 180600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.19 FOR TS 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 180600 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 18 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 180700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 180700 UTC 00HR 26.2N 119.3E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 350KM P12HR NE 30KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 180745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 180600 UTC, TROPICAL STORM CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (26.0 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (119.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 24 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190600 UTC BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW. ** WTSS20 VHHH 180745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 180600 UTC, TROPICAL STORM CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (26.0 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (119.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 24 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190600 UTC BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 180800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 180800 UTC 00HR 26.6N 119.5E 998HPA 16M/S= P12HR NE 35KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 180900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 180900 UTC 00HR 26.8N 119.6E 998HPA 16M/S P12HR NE 35KM/H P+24HR 32.9N 125.9E 1000HPA 15M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 180900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0601 CHANCHU (0601) ANALYSIS PSTN 180900UTC 27.2N 119.9E FAIR MOVE NNE 22KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 260NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 190900UTC 33.2N 125.6E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTSS20 VHHH 181045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TROPICAL STORM CHANCHU (0601) HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECTOPASCALS. AT 180900 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (27.2 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (120.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 24 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHEAST QUADRANT, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190900 UTC BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW. ** WTSS20 VHHH 181045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TROPICAL STORM CHANCHU (0601) HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECTOPASCALS. AT 180900 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (27.2 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (120.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 24 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHEAST QUADRANT, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190900 UTC BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.